Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 24
Los Angeles FCvNew York Red Bulls
Los Angeles FC
New York Red Bulls·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.3–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (11%), then 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Los Angeles FC and New York Red Bulls finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Los / New | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Los Angeles FC down the side and New York Red Bulls across. These 97.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Los Angeles FC69% · Match result
- Over 1.581% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Los Angeles FC the most likely of the three results, at 69% (we would not be surprised by anything from 59% to 78%). Most likely is not likely: at 69% this result does not happen 31% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 69%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Los Angeles FC a 69% chance. Our model makes it 69%.
2Market
Open: 68% home · 18% draw · 14% away
Now: 69% home · 17% draw · 14% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Los Angeles FC
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Los Angeles FC
Confirmed · formation n/a
- J. Shaffelburg — out (International duty)
- A. Long — out (Red Card)
- D. Bouanga — out (International duty)
- T. Tillman — out (Injury)
- S. Palencia — out (Groin Injury)
- L. Walta — out (International duty)
- J. Terry — out (International duty)
- M. Choiniere — out (International duty)
New York Red Bulls
Confirmed · formation n/a
- J. Marshall-Rutty — doubtful (Injury)
- A. Marcucci — doubtful (Knee Injury)
- J. Che — doubtful (Ankle Injury)
- M. Dos Santos — out (International duty)
- R. Mosquera — out (Inactive)
- R. Donkor — out (Yellow Cards)
- C. Harper — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Nealis — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Sofo — doubtful (Ankle Injury)
- O. Valencia — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Mehmeti — out (Red Card)
- D. Ruiz — out (International duty)
- M. Jimenez — out (International duty)
- J. Hall — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Los Angeles FCDDDLL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Real Salt Lake 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v DC United 0–0(xG 1.8–1.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Portland Timbers 1–1
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Colorado Rapids 0–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v San Diego 0–1
New York Red BullsDLDLL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Seattle Sounders 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Philadelphia Union 1–3(xG 2.0–2.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Chicago Fire 1–1
- Wed 19 Aug · H v Nashville SC 0–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Atlanta United FC 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Los Angeles FC have won 0 of their last 5.
- Los Angeles FC have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 1 of Los Angeles FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Los Angeles FC's last 5.
- Los Angeles FC kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- New York Red Bulls have won 0 of their last 5.
- New York Red Bulls have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of New York Red Bulls's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of New York Red Bulls's last 5.
- New York Red Bulls kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Los Angeles FC
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
New York Red Bulls
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
BMO Stadium · Referee: R. Montero
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls?
- Our model makes Los Angeles FC the most likely result at 69%. Most likely is not likely — at 69% it does not happen 31% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 69%.
- Will both teams score in Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls?
- Los Angeles FC's reported absences and doubts include J. Shaffelburg, A. Long, D. Bouanga, T. Tillman and 4 others. New York Red Bulls's include J. Marshall-Rutty, A. Marcucci, J. Che, M. Dos Santos and 10 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.