Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 25
Colorado RapidsvCF Montreal
Colorado Rapids
CF Montreal·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Colorado Rapids and CF Montreal finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Col / CF | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Colorado Rapids down the side and CF Montreal across. These 98.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 80% against 82%.
What we think
- Colorado Rapids55% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Colorado Rapids the most likely of the three results, at 55% (we would not be surprised by anything from 43% to 67%). Most likely is not likely: at 55% this result does not happen 45% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 58%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, which is what the market has it at too (59%).
For comparison, the market gives Colorado Rapids a 58% chance. Our model makes it 55%.
2Market
Open: 58% home · 22% draw · 19% away
Now: 58% home · 22% draw · 19% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Colorado Rapids
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- W. Frederick — out (International duty)
- Y. Maziz — out (Injury)
- R. Cannon — out (Yellow Cards)
- M. Navarro — out (Injury)
- J. Atencio — out (Yellow Cards)
- Z. Steffen — out (Shoulder Injury)
- J. Travis — out (Ankle Injury)
- A. Fadal — out (Abdominal strain)
- M. Diop — out (Knee Injury)
- G. Minoungou — out (International duty)
CF Montreal
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- G. Synchuk — out (International duty)
- N. Streit — out (International duty)
- V. Radojevic — out (International duty)
- E. Morales — out (International duty)
- W. Carmona — out (International duty)
- T. Gillier — out (Upper-Body Injury)
- B. Vera — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- B. Ceballos — out (Yellow Cards)
- F. Herbers — out (Leg Injury)
- B. Hidalgo — out (Groin Injury)
- T. Aviles — out (Hamstring Injury)
- S. Ibrahim — out (Back Injury)
- F. Amaya — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- D. Sealy — out (International duty)
- S. Piette — out (Yellow Cards)
- O. Escobar — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Colorado RapidsDLWLW
- Thu 10 Sep · A v Austin 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Columbus Crew 0–3
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Real Salt Lake 1–0(xG 1.6–0.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v San Diego 0–3
- Thu 20 Aug · H v Los Angeles FC 1–0
CF MontrealLLLDW
- Wed 9 Sep · H v Charlotte 1–2
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Philadelphia Union 0–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Inter Miami 1–7(xG 0.9–3.0)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Los Angeles Galaxy 2–2
- Wed 19 Aug · A v Columbus Crew 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Colorado Rapids have won 2 of their last 5.
- Colorado Rapids have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Colorado Rapids's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Colorado Rapids's last 5.
- Colorado Rapids kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- CF Montreal have won 1 of their last 5.
- CF Montreal have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of CF Montreal's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of CF Montreal's last 5.
- CF Montreal kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Colorado Rapids
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
CF Montreal
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: D. Fischer
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal?
- Our model makes Colorado Rapids the most likely result at 55%. Most likely is not likely — at 55% it does not happen 45% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 58%.
- How many goals are expected in Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal?
- Colorado Rapids's reported absences and doubts include W. Frederick, Y. Maziz, R. Cannon, M. Navarro and 6 others. CF Montreal's include G. Synchuk, N. Streit, V. Radojevic, E. Morales and 12 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal?
- Colorado Rapids line up in a 4-3-3, CF Montreal in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.