Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 25
Vancouver WhitecapsvAustin
Vancouver Whitecaps
Austin·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.5–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (11%), then 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Vancouver Whitecaps and Austin finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Van / Aus | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Vancouver Whitecaps down the side and Austin across. These 95.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 4.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 38% against 47%.
What we think
- Vancouver Whitecaps74% · Match result
- Over 2.561% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Vancouver Whitecaps the most likely of the three results, at 74% (we would not be surprised by anything from 64% to 83%). Most likely is not likely: at 74% this result does not happen 26% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 77%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 61%, against the market’s 69% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Vancouver Whitecaps a 77% chance. Our model makes it 74%.
2Market
Open: 77% home · 15% draw · 9% away
Now: 77% home · 15% draw · 9% away
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Vancouver Whitecaps
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- C. Sabaly — out (Illness)
- R. Priso — out (International duty)
- E. Ocampo — out (International duty)
- M. Gherasimencov — out (International duty)
- A. Cubas — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Badwal — out (Injury)
- T. Muller — out (Leg Injury)
- S. Berhalter — out (Transfer negotiations)
- R. Veselinovic — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Poku — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. G. Cabrera Nakamura — out (Foot Injury)
- E. Sabbi — out (Groin Injury)
- S. Adekugbe — out (Muscle Injury)
- S. Schonlau — out (Hamstring Injury)
- B. Halbouni — out (Knee Injury)
- R. Elloumi — out (International duty)
- Y. Diaby — out (International duty)
Austin
Confirmed · 3-4-3
- M. Uzuni — out (International duty)
- Guilherme Biro — out (Yellow Cards)
- P. Placheta — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- O. Wolff — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Desler — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- B. Hines-Ike — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Nelson — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- D. Pereira — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Vancouver WhitecapsWLWWL
- Thu 10 Sep · H v Los Angeles Galaxy 3–0
- Sun 6 Sep · H v St. Louis City 1–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Sporting Kansas City 3–0(xG 3.0–0.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v FC Dallas 5–0
- Thu 20 Aug · H v Houston Dynamo 0–1
AustinDDWDW
- Thu 10 Sep · H v Colorado Rapids 1–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v San Jose Earthquakes 1–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Portland Timbers 2–1(xG 1.2–2.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Philadelphia Union 1–1
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Seattle Sounders 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Vancouver Whitecaps have won 3 of their last 5.
- Vancouver Whitecaps have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Vancouver Whitecaps's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Vancouver Whitecaps's last 5.
- Vancouver Whitecaps kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- Austin have won 2 of their last 5.
- Austin have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Austin's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Austin's last 5.
- Austin kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Vancouver Whitecaps
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Austin
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
BC Place · Referee: V. Rivas
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin?
- Our model makes Vancouver Whitecaps the most likely result at 74%. Most likely is not likely — at 74% it does not happen 26% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 77%.
- How many goals are expected in Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 61%, and under 2.5 at 39%.
- Will both teams score in Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin?
- Vancouver Whitecaps's reported absences and doubts include C. Sabaly, R. Priso, E. Ocampo, M. Gherasimencov and 13 others. Austin's include M. Uzuni, Guilherme Biro, P. Placheta, O. Wolff and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin?
- Vancouver Whitecaps line up in a 4-2-3-1, Austin in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.