Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 25
FC DallasvPortland Timbers
FC Dallas
Portland Timbers·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.0–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). FC Dallas and Portland Timbers finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| FC / Por | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, FC Dallas down the side and Portland Timbers across. These 98.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 37% against 48%.
What we think
- FC Dallas54% · Match result
- Over 2.560% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 63% against a market price of 52% — 11 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 67% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 5.0 goals, and 3.0 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 19 players reported unavailable — 7 for FC Dallas, 12 for Portland Timbers.
Our forecast makes FC Dallas the most likely of the three results, at 54% (we would not be surprised by anything from 43% to 65%). Most likely is not likely: at 54% this result does not happen 46% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 54%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, against the market’s 70% — a 10 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives FC Dallas a 54% chance. Our model makes it 54%.
2Market
Open: 54% home · 22% draw · 24% away
Now: 54% home · 22% draw · 24% away
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Dallas
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- Ramiro — out (Yellow Cards)
- P. Musa — out (International duty)
- B. Kamungo — out (International duty)
- O. Urhoghide — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. A. Julio Santos — out (Injury)
- Geovane Jesus — out (Knee Injury)
- R. Binyamin — out (International duty)
Portland Timbers
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Z. McGraw — out (Inactive)
- O. Fernandez — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- D. Da Costa — out (Concussion)
- V. Janssen — out (Red Card)
- D. Chara — out (Thigh Injury)
- A. Bonetig — out (Upper Back Injury)
- J. Mosquera — out (Foot Injury)
- J. Caicedo — out (Thigh Injury)
- C. Bassett — out (Injury)
- A. Aravena — out (Hip Injury)
- J. Waterman — out (Yellow Cards)
- F. Surman — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC DallasWWDLW
- Thu 10 Sep · A v Minnesota United FC 2–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Sporting Kansas City 4–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v St. Louis City 3–3(xG 1.0–1.9)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Vancouver Whitecaps 0–5
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Real Salt Lake 4–3
Portland TimbersDWLDW
- Thu 10 Sep · H v St. Louis City 2–2
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Minnesota United FC 5–4
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Austin 1–2(xG 2.0–1.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Los Angeles FC 1–1
- Thu 20 Aug · H v San Diego 3–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Dallas have won 3 of their last 5.
- FC Dallas have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 5 of FC Dallas's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of FC Dallas's last 5.
- FC Dallas kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Portland Timbers have won 2 of their last 5.
- Portland Timbers have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Portland Timbers's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Portland Timbers's last 5.
- Portland Timbers kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- FC Dallas W–D–L
- 0–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Portland Timbers 2–2 FC Dallas
7Context
FC Dallas
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Portland Timbers
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Toyota Stadium, Frisco · Referee: T. Ford
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers?
- Our model makes FC Dallas the most likely result at 54%. Most likely is not likely — at 54% it does not happen 46% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 54%.
- How many goals are expected in FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
- Will both teams score in FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers?
- FC Dallas's reported absences and doubts include Ramiro, P. Musa, B. Kamungo, O. Urhoghide and 3 others. Portland Timbers's include Z. McGraw, O. Fernandez, D. Da Costa, V. Janssen and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers?
- FC Dallas line up in a 3-4-2-1, Portland Timbers in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.