Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 25
Los Angeles GalaxyvSeattle Sounders
Los Angeles Galaxy
Seattle Sounders·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Los Angeles Galaxy and Seattle Sounders finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Los / Sea | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Los Angeles Galaxy down the side and Seattle Sounders across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 33% against 42%.
What we think
- Los Angeles Galaxy39% · Match result
- Over 2.556% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Los Angeles Galaxy the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 56%, against the market’s 64% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Los Angeles Galaxy a 43% chance. Our model makes it 39%.
2Market
Open: 43% home · 25% draw · 32% away
Now: 43% home · 25% draw · 32% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Los Angeles Galaxy
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- S. Roberto — out (Shoulder Injury)
- J. Paintsil — out (Thigh Injury)
- E. Cerrillo — out (Yellow Cards)
- J. Glesnes — out (Yellow Cards)
- L. Sanabria — out (Yellow Cards)
- C. Garces — out (Red Card)
- E. Wynder — out (Injury)
- E. Thommy — out (Injury)
- Matheus Nascimento — out (Muscle Injury)
- C. Rindov — out (Leg Injury)
- H. Miller — out (International duty)
- H. Lozano — out (International duty)
Seattle Sounders
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- P. Rothrock — out (Tendon Injury)
- P. de La Vega — out (Calf Injury)
- J. Ragen — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Roldan — out (Muscle Injury)
- P. Arriola — out (Calf Injury)
- Y. Gomez Andrade — out (Muscle Injury)
- H. Dotson — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Morris — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Roldan — out (Hip Injury)
- Kim Kee-Hee — out (Muscle Injury)
- S. Hawkins — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Los Angeles GalaxyLWLDW
- Thu 10 Sep · A v Vancouver Whitecaps 0–3
- Sun 6 Sep · H v New England Revolution 2–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v San Diego 1–3(xG 0.8–2.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v CF Montreal 2–2
- Thu 20 Aug · H v San Jose Earthquakes 1–0
Seattle SoundersDDDLL
- Sun 6 Sep · H v New York Red Bulls 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Chicago Fire 2–2(xG 0.9–2.0)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v FC Cincinnati 1–1
- Thu 20 Aug · H v Austin 1–2
- Mon 17 Aug · H v Vancouver Whitecaps 0–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Los Angeles Galaxy have won 2 of their last 5.
- Los Angeles Galaxy have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Los Angeles Galaxy's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Los Angeles Galaxy's last 5.
- Los Angeles Galaxy kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Seattle Sounders have won 0 of their last 5.
- Seattle Sounders have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Seattle Sounders's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Seattle Sounders's last 5.
- Seattle Sounders kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Los Angeles Galaxy W–D–L
- 1–0–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Seattle Sounders 0–2 Los Angeles Galaxy
7Context
Los Angeles Galaxy
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Seattle Sounders
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Dignity Health Sports Park · Referee: M. De Oliveira
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Los Angeles Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders?
- Our model makes Los Angeles Galaxy the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
- How many goals are expected in Los Angeles Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 56%, and under 2.5 at 44%.
- Will both teams score in Los Angeles Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Los Angeles Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders?
- Los Angeles Galaxy's reported absences and doubts include S. Roberto, J. Paintsil, E. Cerrillo, J. Glesnes and 8 others. Seattle Sounders's include P. Rothrock, P. de La Vega, J. Ragen, C. Roldan and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Los Angeles Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders?
- Los Angeles Galaxy line up in a 4-3-3, Seattle Sounders in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.