Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 25
Chicago FirevNew England Revolution
Chicago Fire
New England Revolution·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.0–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Chicago Fire and New England Revolution finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Chi / New | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Chicago Fire down the side and New England Revolution across. These 98.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 37% against 44%.
What we think
- Chicago Fire54% · Match result
- Over 2.560% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Chicago Fire the most likely of the three results, at 54% (we would not be surprised by anything from 44% to 64%). Most likely is not likely: at 54% this result does not happen 46% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 48%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, against the market’s 65% — a 5 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Chicago Fire a 48% chance. Our model makes it 54%.
2Market
Open: 48% home · 24% draw · 28% away
Now: 48% home · 24% draw · 29% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards New England Revolution
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Chicago Fire
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- R. Lod — out (International duty)
- A. Saletros — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- J. Bamba — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- S. Oregel — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- C. Mueller — out (Inactive)
- L. Barroso — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- H. Cuypers — out (Head Injury)
- V. Radojevic — doubtful (Lower-Body Injury)
- A. Franco — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Mekvabishvili — out (International duty)
- R. Lewandowski — out (International duty)
- P. Dithejane — out (International duty)
- C. Brady — out (International duty)
- N. Allen — out (International duty)
New England Revolution
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- B. Raines — out (International duty)
- P. Miller — out (International duty)
- I. Feingold — out (International duty)
- L. Langoni — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Harrison — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- A. Farrell — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- M. Polster — out (Muscle Injury)
- B. Ceballos — out (Thigh Injury)
- L. Campana — out (Hamstring Injury)
- D. Turgeman — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Chicago FireDDDDW
- Thu 10 Sep · H v Inter Miami 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Toronto FC 4–4
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Seattle Sounders 2–2(xG 2.0–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v New York Red Bulls 1–1
- Wed 19 Aug · A v Orlando City SC 2–1
New England RevolutionWLWDW
- Thu 10 Sep · A v New York City FC 2–1
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Los Angeles Galaxy 1–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Columbus Crew 3–1(xG 1.4–0.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v New York City FC 1–1
- Wed 19 Aug · A v DC United 3–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Chicago Fire have won 1 of their last 5.
- Chicago Fire have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Chicago Fire's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Chicago Fire's last 5.
- Chicago Fire kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- New England Revolution have won 3 of their last 5.
- New England Revolution have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of New England Revolution's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of New England Revolution's last 5.
- New England Revolution kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Chicago Fire
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
New England Revolution
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Soldier Field, Chicago · Referee: R. Vazquez
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution?
- Our model makes Chicago Fire the most likely result at 54%. Most likely is not likely — at 54% it does not happen 46% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 48%.
- How many goals are expected in Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
- Will both teams score in Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution?
- Chicago Fire's reported absences and doubts include R. Lod, A. Saletros, J. Bamba, S. Oregel and 10 others. New England Revolution's include B. Raines, P. Miller, I. Feingold, L. Langoni and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution?
- Chicago Fire line up in a 4-3-3, New England Revolution in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.