La Liga · Regular Season - 5
Celta VigovMalaga
Celta Vigo
Malaga·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (11%). Celta Vigo and Malaga finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Cel / Mal | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Celta Vigo down the side and Malaga across. These 98.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 54% against 45%.
What we think
- Celta Vigo58% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Celta Vigo the most likely of the three results, at 58% (we would not be surprised by anything from 50% to 68%). Most likely is not likely: at 58% this result does not happen 42% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 57%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 45% — a 9 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Celta Vigo a 57% chance. Our model makes it 58%.
2Market
Open: 56% home · 26% draw · 18% away
Now: 57% home · 26% draw · 18% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Celta Vigo
Confirmed · 3-4-3
- B. Iglesias — out (Injury)
- I. Aspas — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. El Abdellaoui — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Antanon — out (Ankle Injury)
- A. Febas — out (Ribs Injury)
- M. Vecino — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Perez — out (Inactive)
- M. Alonso — out (Red Card)
Malaga
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- A. Ochoa — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Cajuste — out (Injury)
- H. Abaida — out (Inactive)
- A. Aznou — out (Muscle Injury)
- F. Calero — out (Ribs Injury)
- A. Pastor — out (Illness)
- C. Dotor — out (Illness)
- A. Nino — out (Injury)
- J. Lobete — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Murillo — out (Injury)
- Juanpe — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Diarra — out (Calf Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Celta VigoDDLLD
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Getafe 1–1
- Thu 3 Sep · A v Real Sociedad 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Athletic Club 0–2(xG 0.6–2.6)
- Thu 27 Aug · H v Osasuna 1–2(xG 0.1–2.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Valencia 0–0
MalagaDLDL
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Levante 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Real Madrid 0–4(xG 0.7–2.3)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Deportivo La Coruna 1–1(xG 1.9–1.1)
- Wed 19 Aug · A v Atletico Madrid 0–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Celta Vigo have won 0 of their last 5.
- Celta Vigo have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 1 of Celta Vigo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Celta Vigo's last 5.
- Celta Vigo kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Malaga have won 0 of their last 4.
- Malaga have scored in 1 of their last 4.
- 1 of Malaga's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Malaga's last 4.
- Malaga kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Celta Vigo
Rest: 6 days · 3 matches in 14d
Malaga
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Vigo · Referee: Carlos Muniz Munoz, Spain
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Celta Vigo vs Malaga?
- Our model makes Celta Vigo the most likely result at 58%. Most likely is not likely — at 58% it does not happen 42% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 57%.
- How many goals are expected in Celta Vigo vs Malaga?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Malaga?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Celta Vigo vs Malaga?
- Celta Vigo's reported absences and doubts include B. Iglesias, I. Aspas, J. El Abdellaoui, A. Antanon and 4 others. Malaga's include A. Ochoa, J. Cajuste, H. Abaida, A. Aznou and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Celta Vigo vs Malaga?
- Celta Vigo line up in a 3-4-3, Malaga in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.