La Liga · Regular Season - 5
Real SociedadvAtletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid·
0 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.4–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Rea / Atl | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Real Sociedad down the side and Atletico Madrid across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Atletico Madrid40% · Match result
- Over 2.556% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Atletico Madrid the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 48%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 56%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Real Sociedad
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- I. Zubeldia — out (Injury)
- J. Martin — out (Red Card)
- P. Marin — out (Injury)
- H. Fort — out (Coach's decision)
- G. Guedes — out (Injury)
- J. Pacheco — out (Coach's decision)
- A. Odriozola — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Gorrotxategi — out (Groin Injury)
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- C. Romero — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- T. Lemar — out (Coach's decision)
- J. Alvarez — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- A. Sorloth — out (Muscle Injury)
- S. Esteban — doubtful (Injury)
- P. Barrios — out (Muscle Injury)
- R. Le Normand — out (Red Card)
- O. Vargas — out (Coach's decision)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Real SociedadWDWLL
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Elche 3–2
- Thu 3 Sep · H v Celta Vigo 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Espanyol 2–1(xG 1.7–0.8)
- Wed 26 Aug · A v Real Madrid 1–4(xG 0.6–3.1)
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Real Betis 0–1
Atletico MadridLWDWL
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Athletic Club 0–3
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Sevilla 3–1(xG 0.9–1.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Villarreal 2–2(xG 0.8–3.6)
- Wed 19 Aug · H v Malaga 2–0
- Sun 24 May · A v Villarreal 1–5
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Real Sociedad have won 2 of their last 5.
- Real Sociedad have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Real Sociedad's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Real Sociedad's last 5.
- Real Sociedad kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Atletico Madrid have won 2 of their last 5.
- Atletico Madrid have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Atletico Madrid's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Atletico Madrid's last 5.
- Atletico Madrid kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Real Sociedad have won 0, Atletico Madrid 6, with 4 drawn.
- Real Sociedad W–D–L
- 0–4–6
- Over 2.5
- 6 of 10
- Both scored
- 8 of 10
- Atletico Madrid 3–2 Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid 4–0 Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Atletico Madrid
- Real Sociedad 0–2 Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid 2–1 Real Sociedad
- Atletico Madrid 2–1 Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Atletico Madrid
- Real Sociedad 1–2 Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid 2–2 Real Sociedad
7Context
Real Sociedad
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Atletico Madrid
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián · Referee: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid?
- Our model makes Atletico Madrid the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 56%, and under 2.5 at 44%.
- Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid?
- Real Sociedad's reported absences and doubts include I. Zubeldia, J. Martin, P. Marin, H. Fort and 4 others. Atletico Madrid's include C. Romero, T. Lemar, J. Alvarez, A. Sorloth and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid?
- Real Sociedad line up in a 4-2-3-1, Atletico Madrid in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid?
- In their last 10 meetings, Real Sociedad have won 0, Atletico Madrid 6, with 4 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 8.