La Liga · Regular Season - 5
GetafevDeportivo La Coruna
Getafe
Deportivo La Coruna·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.2–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (16%), then 0-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%). Getafe and Deportivo La Coruna finish on some other score 56% of the time.
| Get / Dep | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 16 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Getafe down the side and Deportivo La Coruna across. These 99.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 42% against 32%.
What we think
- Getafe45% · Match result
- Under 2.558% · Goals
- No53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 1.5: Over 1.5
- We make this 69% against a market price of 59% — 10 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 72% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 9 matches between them averaged 2.3 goals, and 2.7 expected across the 4 we have expected goals for.
- 18 players reported unavailable — 11 for Getafe, 7 for Deportivo La Coruna.
Our forecast makes Getafe the most likely of the three results, at 45% (we would not be surprised by anything from 37% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 45% this result does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 36%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 42%, against the market’s 32% — a 10 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Getafe a 36% chance. Our model makes it 45%.
2Market
Open: 36% home · 33% draw · 30% away
Now: 36% home · 33% draw · 30% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Getafe
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- M. Martin — out (Thigh Injury)
- Kiko Femenia — out (Red Card)
- R. Terrats — out (Inactive)
- B. Mayoral — out (Injury)
- A. Garcia — out (Injury)
- A. Abqar — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Satriano — doubtful (Injury)
- Z. Romero — out (Red Card)
- Francho — out (Injury)
- C. Uche — out (Knee Injury)
- Juanmi — out (Injury)
Deportivo La Coruna
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- N. Carrillo — out (Injury)
- Angelino — out (Red Card)
- B. Nsongo — doubtful (Injury)
- M. Casado — out (Coach's decision)
- A. Altimira — out (Red Card)
- A. Traore — out (Muscle Injury)
- Y. Hernandez — out (Groin Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
GetafeDLWLW
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Celta Vigo 1–1
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Osasuna 0–1(xG 0.7–1.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Racing Santander 1–0(xG 1.2–1.3)
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Alaves 0–3
- Sat 23 May · H v Osasuna 1–0
Deportivo La CorunaWWDD
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Villarreal 3–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Valencia 3–1(xG 1.4–1.3)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v Malaga 1–1(xG 1.1–1.9)
- Mon 17 Aug · H v Elche 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Getafe have won 2 of their last 5.
- Getafe have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Getafe's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Getafe's last 5.
- Getafe kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Deportivo La Coruna have won 2 of their last 4.
- Deportivo La Coruna have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 2 of Deportivo La Coruna's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Deportivo La Coruna's last 4.
- Deportivo La Coruna kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Getafe
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Deportivo La Coruna
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Getafe · Referee: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna?
- Our model makes Getafe the most likely result at 45%. Most likely is not likely — at 45% it does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 36%.
- How many goals are expected in Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 42%, and under 2.5 at 58%.
- Will both teams score in Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 47% chance, against 53% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna?
- Getafe's reported absences and doubts include M. Martin, Kiko Femenia, R. Terrats, B. Mayoral and 7 others. Deportivo La Coruna's include N. Carrillo, Angelino, B. Nsongo, M. Casado and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna?
- Getafe line up in a 4-4-2, Deportivo La Coruna in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.