Serie A · Regular Season - 27
SantosvCruzeiro
Santos
Cruzeiro·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–11.1–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 0-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Santos and Cruzeiro finish on some other score 64% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| San / Cru | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Santos down the side and Cruzeiro across. These 99.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 47% against 52%.
What we think
- Cruzeiro35% · Match result
- Under 2.553% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Cruzeiro the most likely of the three results, at 35% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 42%). Most likely is not likely: at 35% this result does not happen 65% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 38%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 47%, against the market’s 52% — a 5 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Cruzeiro a 38% chance. Our model makes it 35%.
2Market
Open: 34% home · 27% draw · 38% away
Now: 34% home · 27% draw · 38% away
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Santos
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Lucas Verissimo — out (Ankle Injury)
- Gabriel Barbosa — out (Yellow Cards)
- Gabriel Brazao — out (Inactive)
- A. Barreal — out (Thigh Injury)
- Neymar — out (Thigh Injury)
- Joao Schmidt — out (Yellow Cards)
- Gabriel Menino — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Frias — out (Transfer negotiations)
- Moises — out (Ankle Injury)
- Igor Vinicius — out (Back Injury)
- Gustavo Henrique — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Thaciano — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Mayke — out (Inactive)
- L. Diaz — out (Inactive)
- Ze Rafael — out (Ankle Injury)
- Willian Arao — out (Inactive)
- Tiquinho Soares — doubtful (Inactive)
Cruzeiro
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- N. Villarreal — out (Inactive)
- L. Romero — out (Calf Injury)
- Kenji — out (Inactive)
- Jonathan Jesus — out (Injury)
- Bruno Rodrigues — out (Inactive)
- Matheus Henrique — out (Yellow Cards)
- L. Sinisterra — out (Muscle Injury)
- Fagner — out (Yellow Cards)
- Gerson — out (Yellow Cards)
- K. Arroyo — out (Inactive)
- William Furtado — out (Personal Reasons)
- Kaua Prates — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Kaio Jorge — out (Foot Injury)
- Cassio — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
SantosWWDWL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Internacional 3–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Corinthians 1–0(xG 1.2–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Mirassol 1–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Vasco DA Gama 3–0
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Atletico Paranaense 0–2
CruzeiroWLWWW
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Atletico Paranaense 3–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Vasco DA Gama 1–3(xG 0.6–3.2)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Flamengo 2–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Corinthians 2–1
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Mirassol 3–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Santos have won 3 of their last 5.
- Santos have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Santos's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Santos's last 5.
- Santos kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Cruzeiro have won 4 of their last 5.
- Cruzeiro have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Cruzeiro's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Cruzeiro's last 5.
- Cruzeiro kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Santos W–D–L
- 0–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Cruzeiro 0–0 Santos
7Context
Santos
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Cruzeiro
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Santos · Referee: B. Arleu
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Santos vs Cruzeiro?
- Our model makes Cruzeiro the most likely result at 35%. Most likely is not likely — at 35% it does not happen 65% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 38%.
- How many goals are expected in Santos vs Cruzeiro?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 47%, and under 2.5 at 53%.
- Will both teams score in Santos vs Cruzeiro?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Santos vs Cruzeiro?
- Santos's reported absences and doubts include Lucas Verissimo, Gabriel Barbosa, Gabriel Brazao, A. Barreal and 13 others. Cruzeiro's include N. Villarreal, L. Romero, Kenji, Jonathan Jesus and 10 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Santos vs Cruzeiro?
- Santos line up in a 4-2-3-1, Cruzeiro in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.