Serie A · Regular Season - 27
FlamengovCorinthians
Flamengo
Corinthians·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (13%), then 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%). Flamengo and Corinthians finish on some other score 64% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Fla / Cor | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Flamengo down the side and Corinthians across. These 98.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 52% against 55%.
What we think
- Flamengo62% · Match result
- Over 2.552% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Both teams to score: Yes
Best price 2.40 at BetanoThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 51% against a market price of 39% — 12 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 91% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.7 goals, and 2.3 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- Both sides scored in 5 of those 10.
- 36 players reported unavailable — 15 for Flamengo, 21 for Corinthians.
Our forecast makes Flamengo the most likely of the three results, at 62% (we would not be surprised by anything from 55% to 68%). Most likely is not likely: at 62% this result does not happen 38% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 78%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 52%, against the market’s 55% — a 3 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Flamengo a 78% chance. Our model makes it 62%.
2Market
Open: 78% home · 16% draw · 6% away
Now: 78% home · 16% draw · 6% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Flamengo
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- E. Pulgar — out (Yellow Cards)
- Lucas Paqueta — out (Yellow Cards)
- G. Plata — out (Inactive)
- Evertton Araujo — out (Thigh Injury)
- Bruno Henrique — out (Yellow Cards)
- N. de la Cruz — out (Muscle Injury)
- Leo Pereira — out (Rest)
- Everton — out (Illness)
- Alex Sandro — out (Calf Injury)
- Luiz Araujo — out (Knee Injury)
- G. de Arrascaeta — out (International duty)
- G. Varela — out (Yellow Cards)
- Jorginho — out (Toe Injury)
- Danilo — out (International duty)
- S. Niguez — out (Ankle Injury)
Corinthians
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Allan — out (Loan agreement)
- Gabriel Paulista — out (Groin Injury)
- Raniele — out (Red Card)
- Hugo Souza — out (Yellow Cards)
- Breno Bidon — out (Yellow Cards)
- Matheuzinho — out (Inactive)
- Matheus Bidu — out (Inactive)
- Andre Ramalho — out (Inactive)
- Yuri Alberto — out (Muscle Injury)
- Andre — out (Muscle Injury)
- Vitinho — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Depay — out (Rest)
- Charles Rigon — out (Inactive)
- A. Carrillo — out (Yellow Cards)
- Joao Pedro — out (Muscle Injury)
- Gui Negao — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Kaio Cesar — out (Thigh Injury)
- Hugo — out (Knee Injury)
- Felipe Longo — out (Elbow Injury)
- M. Pereira — doubtful (Injury)
- J. Martinez — doubtful (Inactive)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FlamengoWWWLW
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Remo 1–0
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Mirassol 2–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Botafogo 3–0(xG 1.7–0.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Cruzeiro 1–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Mirassol 5–1
CorinthiansLLLLW
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Chapecoense-sc 1–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Santos 0–1(xG 0.8–1.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Coritiba 1–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Cruzeiro 1–2
- Sun 9 Aug · A v RB Bragantino 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Flamengo have won 4 of their last 5.
- Flamengo have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Flamengo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Flamengo's last 5.
- Flamengo kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- Corinthians have won 1 of their last 5.
- Corinthians have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Corinthians's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Corinthians's last 5.
- Corinthians kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Flamengo W–D–L
- 0–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Corinthians 1–1 Flamengo
7Context
Flamengo
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Corinthians
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro · Referee: W. Sampaio
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Flamengo vs Corinthians?
- Our model makes Flamengo the most likely result at 62%. Most likely is not likely — at 62% it does not happen 38% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 78%.
- How many goals are expected in Flamengo vs Corinthians?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 52%, and under 2.5 at 48%.
- Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Corinthians?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Flamengo vs Corinthians?
- Flamengo's reported absences and doubts include E. Pulgar, Lucas Paqueta, G. Plata, Evertton Araujo and 11 others. Corinthians's include Allan, Gabriel Paulista, Raniele, Hugo Souza and 17 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Flamengo vs Corinthians?
- Flamengo line up in a 4-2-3-1, Corinthians in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.