Serie A · Regular Season - 21
BotafogovGremio
Botafogo
Gremio·
3 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Botafogo and Gremio finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Bot / Gre | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Botafogo down the side and Gremio across. These 98.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 54% against 56%.
What we think
- Botafogo59% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Botafogo the most likely of the three results, at 59% (we would not be surprised by anything from 53% to 65%). Most likely is not likely: at 59% this result does not happen 41% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 56%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, which is what the market has it at too (56%).
For comparison, the market gives Botafogo a 56% chance. Our model makes it 59%.
2Market
Open: 56% home · 25% draw · 19% away
Now: 56% home · 24% draw · 20% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from the draw
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Botafogo
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- K. Barria — out (Yellow Cards)
- Arthur Cabral — out (Yellow Cards)
- Matheus Martins — out (Inactive)
- Marcal — out (Red Card)
- N. Ferraresi — out (Yellow Cards)
- J. Correa — out (Yellow Cards)
- M. Ponte — out (Yellow Cards)
- C. Medina — out (Yellow Cards)
- Junior Santos — out (Foot Injury)
- Bastos — out (Injury)
- Alex Telles — out (Yellow Cards)
- Nathan Fernandes — out (Knee Injury)
- Allan — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Barboza — out (Inactive)
- S. Rodriguez — out (Injury)
- C. Ramos — out (Inactive)
- Newton — out (Inactive)
- Kaio Pantaleao — out (Knee Injury)
Gremio
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
- Diego Caito — out (Injury)
- C. Pavon — out (Yellow Cards)
- Marlon — out (Injury)
- F. Amuzu — out (Inactive)
- E. Noriega — out (Yellow Cards)
- Gabriel Mec — out (Inactive)
- Walter Kannemann — out (Yellow Cards)
- J. Nardoni — out (Knee Injury)
- Gustavo Martins — out (Injury)
- M. Villasanti — out (Rest)
- M. Monsalve — out (Coach's decision)
- Fabian Balbuena — out (Coach's decision)
- Willian — out (Inactive)
- Joao Pedro — out (Transfer negotiations)
- L. Perez — out (Yellow Cards)
- Viery — out (Yellow Cards)
- Arthur Melo — out (Thigh Injury)
- M. Braithwaite — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BotafogoDDLLL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v RB Bragantino 1–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Palmeiras 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Flamengo 0–3(xG 0.8–1.7)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Atletico Paranaense 2–3
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Vitoria 0–1
GremioLLWLL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Vasco DA Gama 1–2
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Vitoria 0–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Chapecoense-sc 3–1(xG 0.7–2.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v RB Bragantino 0–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Atletico-MG 0–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Botafogo have won 0 of their last 5.
- Botafogo have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Botafogo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Botafogo's last 5.
- Botafogo kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Gremio have won 1 of their last 5.
- Gremio have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of Gremio's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Gremio's last 5.
- Gremio kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Botafogo W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Gremio 5–3 Botafogo
7Context
Botafogo
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Gremio
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro · Referee: E. Batista
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Botafogo vs Gremio?
- Our model makes Botafogo the most likely result at 59%. Most likely is not likely — at 59% it does not happen 41% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 56%.
- How many goals are expected in Botafogo vs Gremio?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Gremio?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Botafogo vs Gremio?
- Botafogo's reported absences and doubts include K. Barria, Arthur Cabral, Matheus Martins, Marcal and 14 others. Gremio's include Diego Caito, C. Pavon, Marlon, F. Amuzu and 14 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Botafogo vs Gremio?
- Botafogo line up in a 4-2-3-1, Gremio in a 4-1-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.