La Liga · Regular Season - 6
Deportivo La CorunavSevilla
Deportivo La Coruna
Sevilla·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.4–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Deportivo La Coruna and Sevilla finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Dep / Sev | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Deportivo La Coruna down the side and Sevilla across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 51% against 43%.
What we think
- Deportivo La Coruna43% · Match result
- Over 2.551% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Deportivo La Coruna the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 52%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 37%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 51%, against the market’s 43% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Deportivo La Coruna a 37% chance. Our model makes it 43%.
2Market
Open: 38% home · 30% draw · 31% away
Now: 37% home · 31% draw · 32% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Deportivo La Coruna
Solid: the market over 12 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Deportivo La Coruna
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- N. Carrillo — out (Injury)
- Angelino — out (Red Card)
- B. Nsongo — doubtful (Injury)
- M. Casado — out (Coach's decision)
- A. Altimira — out (Red Card)
- A. Traore — out (Muscle Injury)
- Y. Hernandez — out (Groin Injury)
Sevilla
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- R. Vargas — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Sangante — out (Ankle Injury)
- L. Stassin — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. Salas — out (Red Card)
- Oso — out (Transfer negotiations)
- Marcao — out (Foot Injury)
- A. Gonzalez — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Deportivo La CorunaDWWDD
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Getafe 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Villarreal 3–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Valencia 3–1(xG 1.4–1.3)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v Malaga 1–1(xG 1.1–1.9)
- Mon 17 Aug · H v Elche 1–1
SevillaWDLWW
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Valencia 1–0
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Espanyol 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Atletico Madrid 1–3(xG 1.0–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Athletic Club 3–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Rayo Vallecano 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Deportivo La Coruna have won 2 of their last 5.
- Deportivo La Coruna have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Deportivo La Coruna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Deportivo La Coruna's last 5.
- Deportivo La Coruna kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Sevilla have won 3 of their last 5.
- Sevilla have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Sevilla's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Sevilla's last 5.
- Sevilla kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Deportivo La Coruna
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Sevilla
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio Riazor, La Coruna · Referee: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla?
- Our model makes Deportivo La Coruna the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 37%.
- How many goals are expected in Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 51%, and under 2.5 at 49%.
- Will both teams score in Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla?
- Deportivo La Coruna's reported absences and doubts include N. Carrillo, Angelino, B. Nsongo, M. Casado and 3 others. Sevilla's include R. Vargas, A. Sangante, L. Stassin, K. Salas and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla?
- Deportivo La Coruna line up in a 4-4-2, Sevilla in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.