La Liga · Regular Season - 5
SevillavValencia
Sevilla
Valencia·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.3–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (9%). Sevilla and Valencia finish on some other score 66% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Sev / Val | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Sevilla down the side and Valencia across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Sevilla40% · Match result
- Over 1.574% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Both teams to score: Yes
Best price 2.00 at William HillThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 53% against a market price of 46% — 7 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 71% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.8 goals, and 2.2 expected across the 3 we have expected goals for.
- Both sides scored in 6 of those 10.
- Their last 10 meetings averaged 2.0 goals.
- 21 players reported unavailable — 7 for Sevilla, 14 for Valencia.
- The price has moved 5.7% towards Sevilla since it opened.
Our forecast makes Sevilla the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 47%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 49%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Sevilla a 49% chance. Our model makes it 40%.
2Market
Open: 44% home · 30% draw · 27% away
Now: 49% home · 29% draw · 22% away
Moved +5pp — the market moved towards Sevilla
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sevilla
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- R. Vargas — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Sangante — out (Ankle Injury)
- L. Stassin — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. Salas — out (Red Card)
- Oso — out (Transfer negotiations)
- Marcao — out (Foot Injury)
- A. Gonzalez — out (Muscle Injury)
Valencia
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- L. Rioja — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Foulquier — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Tarrega — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Diakhaby — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Vazquez — doubtful (Ankle Injury)
- U. Sadiq — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Almeida — doubtful (Injury)
- G. Rodriguez — out (Muscle Injury)
- P. Maffeo — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Mari — out (Leg Injury)
- D. Lopez — out (Knee Injury)
- J. De Haas — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Copete — out (Ankle Injury)
- S. Canos — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
SevillaDLWWL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Espanyol 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Atletico Madrid 1–3(xG 1.0–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Athletic Club 3–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Rayo Vallecano 2–1
- Sat 23 May · A v Celta Vigo 0–1
ValenciaLLLDW
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Barcelona 0–5
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Deportivo La Coruna 1–3(xG 1.3–1.4)
- Tue 25 Aug · H v Real Betis 0–1(xG 1.1–0.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Celta Vigo 0–0
- Sat 23 May · H v Barcelona 3–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sevilla have won 2 of their last 5.
- Sevilla have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Sevilla's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Sevilla's last 5.
- Sevilla kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Valencia have won 1 of their last 5.
- Valencia have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of Valencia's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Valencia's last 5.
- Valencia kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Sevilla have won 2, Valencia 3, with 5 drawn.
- Sevilla W–D–L
- 2–5–3
- Over 2.5
- 2 of 10
- Both scored
- 6 of 10
- Sevilla 0–2 Valencia
- Valencia 1–1 Sevilla
- Valencia 1–0 Sevilla
- Sevilla 1–1 Valencia
- Valencia 0–0 Sevilla
- Sevilla 1–2 Valencia
- Valencia 0–2 Sevilla
- Sevilla 1–1 Valencia
- Valencia 1–1 Sevilla
- Sevilla 3–1 Valencia
7Context
Sevilla
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Valencia
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Seville · Referee: Mateo Busquets Ferrer, Spain
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Sevilla vs Valencia?
- Our model makes Sevilla the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 49%.
- Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Valencia?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Sevilla vs Valencia?
- Sevilla's reported absences and doubts include R. Vargas, A. Sangante, L. Stassin, K. Salas and 3 others. Valencia's include L. Rioja, D. Foulquier, C. Tarrega, M. Diakhaby and 10 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Sevilla vs Valencia?
- Sevilla line up in a 4-4-2, Valencia in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Valencia?
- In their last 10 meetings, Sevilla have won 2, Valencia 3, with 5 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.