Championship · Regular Season - 7
West HamvWrexham
West Ham
Wrexham·
6 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.3–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (11%), then 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). West Ham and Wrexham finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Wes / Wre | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, West Ham down the side and Wrexham across. These 96.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 3.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- West Ham69% · Match result
- Over 1.582% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes West Ham the most likely of the three results, at 69% (we would not be surprised by anything from 57% to 79%). Most likely is not likely: at 69% this result does not happen 31% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 61%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives West Ham a 61% chance. Our model makes it 69%.
2Market
Open: 61% home · 22% draw · 17% away
Now: 61% home · 22% draw · 17% away
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
West Ham
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- J. Veltman — out (Injury)
- T. Castellanos — out (Injury)
- A. Areola — out (Calf Injury)
- T. Soucek — out (Ankle Injury)
- Pablo — out (Health problems)
- K. Mavropanos — out (Inactive)
- K. Lamadrid — out (Knee Injury)
Wrexham
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- O. Rathbone — out (Ankle Injury)
- L. Cacace — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Cleworth — out (Muscle Injury)
- B. Sheaf — out (Inactive)
- N. Broadhead — out (Inactive)
- S. Revan — out (Hamstring Injury)
- G. Thomason — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Windass — out (Calf Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
West HamWWWDL
- Tue 8 Sep · A v Bolton 3–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Derby 3–0
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Wolves 4–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Watford 1–1(xG 0.7–1.3)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Charlton 1–2
WrexhamDDWLD
- Tue 8 Sep · H v Burnley 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Swansea 0–0
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Millwall 3–0(xG 0.9–0.2)
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Birmingham 1–2(xG 1.4–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Watford 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- West Ham have won 3 of their last 5.
- West Ham have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of West Ham's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of West Ham's last 5.
- West Ham kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Wrexham have won 1 of their last 5.
- Wrexham have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Wrexham's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Wrexham's last 5.
- Wrexham kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
West Ham
Rest: 3 days · 4 matches in 14d
Wrexham
Rest: 3 days · 4 matches in 14d
London Stadium, London · Referee: Matt Donohue, England
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win West Ham vs Wrexham?
- Our model makes West Ham the most likely result at 69%. Most likely is not likely — at 69% it does not happen 31% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 61%.
- Will both teams score in West Ham vs Wrexham?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for West Ham vs Wrexham?
- West Ham's reported absences and doubts include J. Veltman, T. Castellanos, A. Areola, T. Soucek and 3 others. Wrexham's include O. Rathbone, L. Cacace, M. Cleworth, B. Sheaf and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for West Ham vs Wrexham?
- West Ham line up in a 4-4-2, Wrexham in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.