Bundesliga · Regular Season - 3
Union BerlinvFC Schalke 04
Union Berlin
FC Schalke 04·
1 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (12%), then 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04 finish on some other score 66% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Uni / FC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Union Berlin down the side and FC Schalke 04 across. These 99.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Union Berlin57% · Match result
- Over 1.577% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: Union Berlin
Best price 2.44 at 1xBetThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 57% against a market price of 41% — 16 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 78% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 2 meetings averaged 3.5 goals.
- 15 players reported unavailable — 8 for Union Berlin, 7 for FC Schalke 04.
Our forecast makes Union Berlin the most likely of the three results, at 57% (we would not be surprised by anything from 47% to 66%). Most likely is not likely: at 57% this result does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 41%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Union Berlin a 41% chance. Our model makes it 57%.
2Market
Open: 43% home · 26% draw · 32% away
Now: 41% home · 28% draw · 32% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards the draw
Solid: the market over 9 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Union Berlin
Confirmed · 4-1-2-1-2
- K. Imeri — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Juranovic — out (Illness)
- S. Nsoki — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Friedrich — out (Injury)
- F. Ronnow — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Ilic — out (Illness)
- O. Burke — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- A. Markgraf — out (Knee Injury)
FC Schalke 04
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- D. Ljubicic — out (Knee Injury)
- B. Lasme — out (Calf Injury)
- A. Gantenbein — out (Ankle Injury)
- K. Karaman — out (Hip Injury)
- R. Schallenberg — out (Red Card)
- T. Kalas — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- E. Hojlund — out (Heel Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Union BerlinLDWWD
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Bayer Leverkusen 0–4
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Eintracht Frankfurt 3–3(xG 1.9–1.4)
- Sat 16 May · H v FC Augsburg 4–0
- Sun 10 May · A v FSV Mainz 05 3–1
- Sat 2 May · H v 1. FC Köln 2–2
FC Schalke 04DLLDL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Bayern München 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v FC Augsburg 0–3(xG 1.5–3.5)
- Sat 27 May · A v RB Leipzig 2–4
- Sat 20 May · H v Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2
- Sat 13 May · A v Bayern München 0–6
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Union Berlin have won 2 of their last 5.
- Union Berlin have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 5 of Union Berlin's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Union Berlin's last 5.
- Union Berlin kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- FC Schalke 04 have won 0 of their last 5.
- FC Schalke 04 have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 4 of FC Schalke 04's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of FC Schalke 04's last 5.
- FC Schalke 04 kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, Union Berlin have won 1, FC Schalke 04 0, with 1 drawn.
- Union Berlin W–D–L
- 1–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 2
- Both scored
- 1 of 2
- Union Berlin 0–0 FC Schalke 04
- FC Schalke 04 1–6 Union Berlin
7Context
Union Berlin
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
FC Schalke 04
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: Timo Gerach, Germany
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04?
- Our model makes Union Berlin the most likely result at 57%. Most likely is not likely — at 57% it does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04?
- Union Berlin's reported absences and doubts include K. Imeri, J. Juranovic, S. Nsoki, M. Friedrich and 4 others. FC Schalke 04's include D. Ljubicic, B. Lasme, A. Gantenbein, K. Karaman and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04?
- Union Berlin line up in a 4-1-2-1-2, FC Schalke 04 in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04?
- In their last 2 meetings, Union Berlin have won 1, FC Schalke 04 0, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 1.