Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 4
RennesvMarseille
Rennes
Marseille·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–1.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Rennes and Marseille finish on some other score 74% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Ren / Mar | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Rennes down the side and Marseille across. These 98.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Rennes41% · Match result
- Over 1.584% · Goals
- Yes62% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Rennes the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 50%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 48%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Rennes a 48% chance. Our model makes it 41%.
2Market
Open: 45% home · 25% draw · 30% away
Now: 48% home · 24% draw · 28% away
Moved +3pp — the market moved towards Rennes
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Rennes
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- G. Oliveira — out (Inactive)
- A. Nordin — out (Inactive)
- D. Cisse — out (Inactive)
- A. Ait Boudlal — out (Inactive)
- B. Samba — out (Muscle Injury)
- S. Fofana — out (Inactive)
- M. Camara — out (Yellow Cards)
Marseille
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- A. Koum Mbondo — out (Inactive)
- T. Nnadi — out (Injury)
- G. Kondogbia — out (Injury)
- I. Paixao — out (Muscle Injury)
- Q. Timber — out (Yellow Cards)
- F. Moumbagna — out (Injury)
- L. Balerdi — out (Calf Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
RennesWWDLW
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Angers 2–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Le Mans 3–2(xG 2.7–3.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Paris Saint Germain 2–2(xG 0.9–2.2)
- Sun 17 May · A v Marseille 1–3
- Sun 10 May · H v Paris FC 2–1
MarseilleLLWWW
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Paris FC 2–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Monaco 0–2(xG 1.2–1.5)
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Strasbourg 4–0
- Sun 17 May · H v Rennes 3–1
- Sun 10 May · A v Le Havre 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Rennes have won 3 of their last 5.
- Rennes have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Rennes's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Rennes's last 5.
- Rennes kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Marseille have won 3 of their last 5.
- Marseille have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Marseille's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Marseille's last 5.
- Marseille kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Rennes have won 3, Marseille 6, with 1 drawn.
- Rennes W–D–L
- 3–1–6
- Over 2.5
- 3 of 10
- Both scored
- 4 of 10
- Marseille 3–1 Rennes
- Rennes 1–0 Marseille
- Marseille 4–2 Rennes
- Rennes 1–2 Marseille
- Rennes 2–0 Marseille
- Marseille 2–0 Rennes
- Rennes 0–1 Marseille
- Marseille 1–1 Rennes
- Rennes 2–0 Marseille
- Marseille 2–0 Rennes
7Context
Rennes
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Marseille
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Roazhon Park, Rennes · Referee: Jeremy Stinat, France
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Rennes vs Marseille?
- Our model makes Rennes the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 48%.
- Will both teams score in Rennes vs Marseille?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 62% chance, against 38% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Rennes vs Marseille?
- Rennes's reported absences and doubts include G. Oliveira, A. Nordin, D. Cisse, A. Ait Boudlal and 3 others. Marseille's include A. Koum Mbondo, T. Nnadi, G. Kondogbia, I. Paixao and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Rennes vs Marseille?
- Rennes line up in a 4-3-3, Marseille in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Marseille?
- In their last 10 meetings, Rennes have won 3, Marseille 6, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.