Serie A · Regular Season - 4
VeneziavFiorentina
Venezia
Fiorentina·
2 – 4 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–20.9–1.6 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%). Venezia and Fiorentina finish on some other score 65% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Ven / Fio | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Venezia down the side and Fiorentina across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Fiorentina52% · Match result
- Over 1.575% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: Fiorentina
Best price 2.61 at 1xBetThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
A half-Kelly stake at the cautious end of our range would be 0.05% of a bankroll, at odds of 2.61. Sizing, not advice: it assumes you can get that price, it is computed at 38% rather than our headline number, and it is halved and capped because the probability is an estimate and no single match should be able to matter much.
- We make this 52% against a market price of 38% — 14 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 80% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 4 meetings averaged 1.3 goals.
- 16 players reported unavailable — 11 for Venezia, 5 for Fiorentina.
- The price has moved 3.3% away from Fiorentina since it opened.
Our forecast makes Fiorentina the most likely of the three results, at 52% (we would not be surprised by anything from 44% to 60%). Most likely is not likely: at 52% this result does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 38%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Fiorentina a 38% chance. Our model makes it 52%.
2Market
Open: 31% home · 28% draw · 41% away
Now: 34% home · 28% draw · 38% away
Moved −3pp — the market moved away from Fiorentina
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Venezia
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- R. Haps — out (Inactive)
- G. Busio — out (Injury)
- M. Dagasso — out (Inactive)
- A. Bella-Kotchap — out (Injury)
- T. Basic — out (Foot Injury)
- M. Moreno — out (Health problems)
- B. Franjic — out (Injury)
- A. Rrahmani — doubtful (Injury)
- A. Duncan — out (Injury)
- M. Sverko — out (Hip Injury)
- A. Adorante — out (Hernia)
Fiorentina
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- C. Inao Oulai — doubtful (Injury)
- F. Croci — doubtful (Injury)
- M. Kean — out (Transfer negotiations)
- R. Sottil — out (Back Injury)
- F. Parisi — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
VeneziaLLLLL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Frosinone 2–3
- Fri 28 Aug · A v AC Milan 0–2(xG 0.8–2.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Lecce 0–2(xG 2.0–2.7)
- Sun 25 May · H v Juventus 2–3
- Sun 18 May · A v Cagliari 0–3
FiorentinaLLLDW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Torino 1–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Frosinone 0–3(xG 1.9–1.1)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v AS Roma 0–4(xG 0.3–3.1)
- Fri 22 May · H v Atalanta 1–1
- Sun 17 May · A v Juventus 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Venezia have won 0 of their last 5.
- Venezia have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of Venezia's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Venezia's last 5.
- Venezia kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Fiorentina have won 1 of their last 5.
- Fiorentina have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Fiorentina's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Fiorentina's last 5.
- Fiorentina kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 4 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 4 meetings, Venezia have won 2, Fiorentina 1, with 1 drawn.
- Venezia W–D–L
- 2–1–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 4
- Both scored
- 1 of 4
- Venezia 2–1 Fiorentina
- Fiorentina 0–0 Venezia
- Fiorentina 1–0 Venezia
- Venezia 1–0 Fiorentina
7Context
Venezia
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Fiorentina
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia · Referee: Francesco Fourneau, Italy
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Venezia vs Fiorentina?
- Our model makes Fiorentina the most likely result at 52%. Most likely is not likely — at 52% it does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 38%.
- Will both teams score in Venezia vs Fiorentina?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Venezia vs Fiorentina?
- Venezia's reported absences and doubts include R. Haps, G. Busio, M. Dagasso, A. Bella-Kotchap and 7 others. Fiorentina's include C. Inao Oulai, F. Croci, M. Kean, R. Sottil and 1 other. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Venezia vs Fiorentina?
- Venezia line up in a 3-5-2, Fiorentina in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Fiorentina?
- In their last 4 meetings, Venezia have won 2, Fiorentina 1, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 4 meetings, and both teams scored in 1.