Eredivisie · Regular Season - 6
AZ AlkmaarvWillem II
AZ Alkmaar
Willem II·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.3–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 3-0 (10%). AZ Alkmaar and Willem II finish on some other score 65% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| AZ / Wil | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, AZ Alkmaar down the side and Willem II across. These 97.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 3.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- AZ Alkmaar73% · Match result
- Over 1.580% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes AZ Alkmaar the most likely of the three results, at 73% (we would not be surprised by anything from 60% to 84%). Most likely is not likely: at 73% this result does not happen 27% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 86%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives AZ Alkmaar a 86% chance. Our model makes it 73%.
2Market
Open: 85% home · 10% draw · 5% away
Now: 86% home · 9% draw · 4% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards AZ Alkmaar
Solid: the market over 11 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- M. Sin — out (Inactive)
- K. Smit — out (Groin Injury)
- S. Resink — out (Knee Injury)
- T. Parrott — out (Inactive)
- R. Robbemond — out (Inactive)
- A. Natali — out (Inactive)
- D. Kasius — out (Groin Injury)
- J. Hornkamp — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Clasie — out (Injury)
Willem II
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- V. van Crooij — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Hoogma — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Boogaard — out (Knock)
- T. Vilhena — out (Inactive)
- L. Abildgaard — out (Inactive)
- T. Didillon Hodl — out (Hamstring Injury)
- H. ter Avest — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- A. Zarrouk — out (Surgery)
- J. Schuurman — out (Knock)
- A. Lachkar — out (Groin Injury)
- A. Culum — out (Foot Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AZ AlkmaarWWWWW
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Heerenveen 3–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v GO Ahead Eagles 5–2(xG 2.4–1.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Fortuna Sittard 2–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Utrecht 4–1
- Sat 8 Aug · H v ADO Den Haag 2–0
Willem IILDLL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Excelsior 0–3
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Heerenveen 2–2(xG 1.7–1.4)
- Sat 15 Aug · H v NEC Nijmegen 1–4
- Sat 8 Aug · A v GO Ahead Eagles 1–4
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- AZ Alkmaar have won 5 of their last 5.
- AZ Alkmaar have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of AZ Alkmaar's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of AZ Alkmaar's last 5.
- AZ Alkmaar kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Willem II have won 0 of their last 4.
- Willem II have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 4 of Willem II's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Willem II's last 4.
- Willem II kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
AZ Alkmaar
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Willem II
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar · Referee: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
- Our model makes AZ Alkmaar the most likely result at 73%. Most likely is not likely — at 73% it does not happen 27% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 86%.
- Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
- AZ Alkmaar's reported absences and doubts include M. Sin, K. Smit, S. Resink, T. Parrott and 5 others. Willem II's include V. van Crooij, J. Hoogma, K. Boogaard, T. Vilhena and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
- AZ Alkmaar line up in a 4-2-3-1, Willem II in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.