← Today's board

Liga MX · Apertura - 7

U.N.A.M. - PumasvLeon

·

1Headline

We expect

2–12.1–0.9 goals

Likeliest exact score 2–0 (11%), then 1-0 (10%), 1-1 (10%). U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Leon finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.

Probability of each scoreline, U.N.A.M. - Pumas goals down the side, Leon across
U.N / Leo012345
06420.60.10.0
11010410.30.0
21110410.30.0
38730.90.20.0
44420.40.10.0
5210.60.20.00.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, U.N.A.M. - Pumas down the side and Leon across. These 98.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.0% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

What we think

  • U.N.A.M. - Pumas65% · Match result
  • Over 1.579% · Goals
  • Yes54% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.

Our forecast makes U.N.A.M. - Pumas the most likely of the three results, at 65% (we would not be surprised by anything from 51% to 80%). Most likely is not likely: at 65% this result does not happen 35% of the time.

Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

No market data captured yet for this fixture.

2Market

No odds captured yet.

Match result

Home65%vs—
Draw21%vs—
Away14%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.579%vs—
Under 1.521%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.

Both teams to score

Yes54%vs—
No46%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

Leon

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

U.N.A.M. - PumasLDDWW

  • Sat 29 Aug · A v Club Tijuana 0–2(xG 0.4–2.5)
  • Mon 24 Aug · H v Necaxa 1–1
  • Sun 16 Aug · H v Club Queretaro 0–0
  • Sat 1 Aug · A v FC Juarez 5–1
  • Wed 22 Jul · A v Toluca 2–1

LeonDWWWL

  • Sat 29 Aug · A v Atlante FC 1–1(xG 1.4–1.1)
  • Sat 22 Aug · H v Monterrey 2–0
  • Tue 18 Aug · A v Necaxa 2–1
  • Sun 2 Aug · H v CF Pachuca 1–0
  • Sat 25 Jul · A v Club Tijuana 0–1

5Trends

How each side has been going, and how these two have met — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
  • U.N.A.M. - Pumas have won 2 of their last 5.
  • U.N.A.M. - Pumas have scored in 3 of their last 5.
  • 2 of U.N.A.M. - Pumas's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of U.N.A.M. - Pumas's last 5.
  • U.N.A.M. - Pumas kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
Leon
  • Leon have won 3 of their last 5.
  • Leon have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 1 of Leon's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of Leon's last 5.
  • Leon kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

Only 0 prior meetings on record — thin sample.

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Rest: 13 days · 1 match in 14d

Leon

Rest: 13 days · 1 match in 14d

Venue unconfirmed

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Leon?
Our model makes U.N.A.M. - Pumas the most likely result at 65%. Most likely is not likely — at 65% it does not happen 35% of the time.
Will both teams score in U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Leon?
Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.