Liga MX · Apertura - 7
U.N.A.M. - PumasvLeon
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Leon·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.1–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (11%), then 1-0 (10%), 1-1 (10%). U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Leon finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| U.N / Leo | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, U.N.A.M. - Pumas down the side and Leon across. These 98.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas65% · Match result
- Over 1.579% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Best price 2.19 at PinnacleThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 65% against a market price of 45% — 20 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 74% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- The price has moved 2.2% towards Leon since it opened.
Our forecast makes U.N.A.M. - Pumas the most likely of the three results, at 65% (we would not be surprised by anything from 51% to 80%). Most likely is not likely: at 65% this result does not happen 35% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 45%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives U.N.A.M. - Pumas a 45% chance. Our model makes it 65%.
2Market
Open: 47% home · 26% draw · 27% away
Now: 45% home · 26% draw · 29% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Leon
Solid: the market over 11 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
Leon
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
U.N.A.M. - PumasLDDWW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Club Tijuana 0–2(xG 0.4–2.5)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Necaxa 1–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Club Queretaro 0–0
- Sat 1 Aug · A v FC Juarez 5–1
- Wed 22 Jul · A v Toluca 2–1
LeonDWWWL
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Atlante FC 1–1(xG 1.4–1.1)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Monterrey 2–0
- Tue 18 Aug · A v Necaxa 2–1
- Sun 2 Aug · H v CF Pachuca 1–0
- Sat 25 Jul · A v Club Tijuana 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas have won 2 of their last 5.
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of U.N.A.M. - Pumas's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of U.N.A.M. - Pumas's last 5.
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Leon have won 3 of their last 5.
- Leon have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of Leon's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Leon's last 5.
- Leon kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Rest: 13 days · 1 match in 14d
Leon
Rest: 13 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio Olimpico Universitario, Mexico City · Referee: Salvador Perez Villalobos, Mexico
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Leon?
- Our model makes U.N.A.M. - Pumas the most likely result at 65%. Most likely is not likely — at 65% it does not happen 35% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 45%.
- Will both teams score in U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Leon?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Leon?
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas line up in a 3-4-2-1, Leon in a 4-1-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.