Serie A · Regular Season - 3
FrosinonevVenezia
Frosinone
Venezia·
3 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Frosinone47% · Match result
- Over 1.576% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Frosinone the most likely of the three results, at 47% (we would not be surprised by anything from 36% to 59%). Most likely is not likely: at 47% this result does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 37%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Frosinone a 37% chance. Our model makes it 47%.
2Market
Open: 35% home · 28% draw · 37% away
Now: 37% home · 27% draw · 36% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Frosinone
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Frosinone
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- F. Grillitsch — out (Thigh Injury)
- F. Ghedjemis — out (Calf Injury)
Venezia
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- R. Haps — out (Inactive)
- G. Busio — out (Injury)
- M. Dagasso — out (Inactive)
- A. Bella-Kotchap — out (Injury)
- T. Basic — out (Foot Injury)
- M. Moreno — out (Health problems)
- B. Franjic — out (Injury)
- A. Rrahmani — doubtful (Injury)
- A. Duncan — out (Injury)
- M. Sverko — out (Hip Injury)
- A. Adorante — out (Hernia)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FrosinoneWLLWL
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Fiorentina 3–0(xG 1.1–1.9)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Juventus 0–1(xG 0.4–2.2)
- Sun 26 May · H v Udinese 0–1
- Sun 19 May · A v Monza 1–0
- Fri 10 May · H v Inter 0–5
VeneziaLLLLW
- Fri 28 Aug · A v AC Milan 0–2(xG 0.8–2.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Lecce 0–2(xG 2.0–2.7)
- Sun 25 May · H v Juventus 2–3
- Sun 18 May · A v Cagliari 0–3
- Mon 12 May · H v Fiorentina 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Frosinone have won 2 of their last 5.
- Frosinone have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Frosinone's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 0 of Frosinone's last 5.
- Frosinone kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Venezia have won 1 of their last 5.
- Venezia have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of Venezia's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Venezia's last 5.
- Venezia kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Frosinone
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Venezia
Rest: 9 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone · Referee: Mario Perri, Italy
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Frosinone vs Venezia?
- Our model makes Frosinone the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 37%.
- Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Venezia?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Frosinone vs Venezia?
- Frosinone's reported absences and doubts include F. Grillitsch, F. Ghedjemis. Venezia's include R. Haps, G. Busio, M. Dagasso, A. Bella-Kotchap and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Frosinone vs Venezia?
- Frosinone line up in a 4-2-3-1, Venezia in a 3-5-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.