Serie A · Regular Season - 3
JuventusvAC Milan
Juventus
AC Milan·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Juventus46% · Match result
- Over 1.575% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 1.5: Over 1.5
- We make this 75% against a market price of 70% — 5 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 68% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.6 goals, and 2.7 expected across the 4 we have expected goals for.
- Their last 10 meetings averaged 0.8 goals.
- 20 players reported unavailable — 14 for Juventus, 6 for AC Milan.
- The price has moved 2.4% away from Juventus since it opened.
Our forecast makes Juventus the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 40% to 51%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 44%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Juventus a 44% chance. Our model makes it 46%.
2Market
Open: 46% home · 29% draw · 25% away
Now: 44% home · 31% draw · 26% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Juventus
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Juventus
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- K. Grabara — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Locatelli — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Boga — out (Muscle Injury)
- E. Zhegrova — out (Muscle Injury)
- P. M. Sarr — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Milik — out (Inactive)
- W. McKennie — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Cambiaso — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Cabal — out (Thigh Injury)
- F. Gatti — out (Injury)
- J. Ekhator — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Di Gregorio — out (Transfer negotiations)
- K. Yildiz — out (Foot Injury)
- K. Thuram — out (Knee Injury)
AC Milan
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- S. Gimenez — out (Transfer negotiations)
- M. Gabbia — out (Ankle Injury)
- C. Nkunku — out (Inactive)
- F. Tomori — out (Transfer negotiations)
- R. Leao — out (Muscle Injury)
- Y. Fofana — out (Transfer negotiations)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
JuventusWWDLW
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Parma 2–0(xG 1.7–0.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Frosinone 1–0(xG 2.2–0.4)
- Sun 24 May · A v Torino 2–2
- Sun 17 May · H v Fiorentina 0–2
- Sat 9 May · A v Lecce 1–0
AC MilanWWLWL
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Venezia 2–0(xG 2.1–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Torino 2–1(xG 2.1–1.3)
- Sun 24 May · H v Cagliari 1–2
- Sun 17 May · A v Genoa 2–1
- Sun 10 May · H v Atalanta 2–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Juventus have won 3 of their last 5.
- Juventus have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of Juventus's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Juventus's last 5.
- Juventus kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- AC Milan have won 3 of their last 5.
- AC Milan have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of AC Milan's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of AC Milan's last 5.
- AC Milan kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Juventus have won 2, AC Milan 2, with 6 drawn.
- Juventus W–D–L
- 2–6–2
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 10
- Both scored
- 1 of 10
- AC Milan 0–0 Juventus
- Juventus 0–0 AC Milan
- Juventus 2–0 AC Milan
- AC Milan 0–0 Juventus
- Juventus 0–0 AC Milan
- AC Milan 0–1 Juventus
- Juventus 0–1 AC Milan
- AC Milan 2–0 Juventus
- AC Milan 0–0 Juventus
- Juventus 1–1 AC Milan
7Context
Juventus
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
AC Milan
Rest: 9 days · 2 matches in 14d
Allianz Stadium, Torino · Referee: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Juventus vs AC Milan?
- Our model makes Juventus the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 44%.
- Will both teams score in Juventus vs AC Milan?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Juventus vs AC Milan?
- Juventus's reported absences and doubts include K. Grabara, M. Locatelli, J. Boga, E. Zhegrova and 10 others. AC Milan's include S. Gimenez, M. Gabbia, C. Nkunku, F. Tomori and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Juventus vs AC Milan?
- Juventus line up in a 4-2-3-1, AC Milan in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and AC Milan?
- In their last 10 meetings, Juventus have won 2, AC Milan 2, with 6 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 0 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 1.