Serie A · Regular Season - 3
ParmavMonza
Parma
Monza·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Parma41% · Match result
- Over 1.571% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Parma the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Monza the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 34%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Monza a 34% chance. Our model makes it 29%.
2Market
Open: 36% home · 32% draw · 32% away
Now: 34% home · 32% draw · 34% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Parma
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Parma
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- A. Bernabe — out (Thigh Injury)
- L. Valenti — out (Coach's decision)
- O. Diallo — out (Injury)
- A. Joujou — out (Inactive)
- S. Britschgi — out (Yellow Cards)
- H. Nicolussi Caviglia — out (Groin Injury)
Monza
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- I. Toure — out (Contusion)
- C. Ngonge — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- J. Ziolkowski — out (Foot Injury)
- P. Ciurria — out (Inactive)
- G. Varela — out (Thigh Injury)
- E. Zeballos — doubtful (Inactive)
- D. Thiam — out (Yellow Cards)
- M. Pessina — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Mota — out (Suspended)
- L. Colombo — out (Injury)
- E. Akinsanmiro — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ParmaLLWLL
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Juventus 0–2(xG 0.2–1.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Cagliari 0–1
- Sun 24 May · H v Sassuolo 1–0
- Sun 17 May · A v Como 0–1
- Sun 10 May · H v AS Roma 2–3
MonzaLLLLW
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Udinese 2–3(xG 1.6–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Inter 1–4
- Sat 24 May · A v AC Milan 0–2
- Sun 18 May · H v Empoli 1–3
- Sun 11 May · A v Udinese 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Parma have won 1 of their last 5.
- Parma have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 1 of Parma's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Parma's last 5.
- Parma kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Monza have won 1 of their last 5.
- Monza have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Monza's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Monza's last 5.
- Monza kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, Parma have won 1, Monza 0, with 1 drawn.
- Parma W–D–L
- 1–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 2
- Both scored
- 2 of 2
- Monza 1–1 Parma
- Parma 2–1 Monza
7Context
Parma
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Monza
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma · Referee: Federico La Penna, Italy
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Parma vs Monza?
- Our model makes Parma the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market instead favours Monza at 34%.
- Will both teams score in Parma vs Monza?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Parma vs Monza?
- Parma's reported absences and doubts include A. Bernabe, L. Valenti, O. Diallo, A. Joujou and 2 others. Monza's include I. Toure, C. Ngonge, J. Ziolkowski, P. Ciurria and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Parma vs Monza?
- Parma line up in a 3-5-2, Monza in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Monza?
- In their last 2 meetings, Parma have won 1, Monza 0, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.