Serie A · Regular Season - 3
BolognavSassuolo
Bologna
Sassuolo·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Bologna51% · Match result
- Over 1.578% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Bologna the most likely of the three results, at 51% (we would not be surprised by anything from 45% to 59%). Most likely is not likely: at 51% this result does not happen 49% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 47%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Bologna a 47% chance. Our model makes it 51%.
2Market
Open: 47% home · 28% draw · 25% away
Now: 47% home · 27% draw · 26% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Sassuolo
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Bologna
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- N. Zortea — out (Hip Injury)
- A. Dovbyk — out (Muscle Injury)
- R. Orsolini — out (Injury)
- J. Rowe — out (Inactive)
- O. El Azzouzi — out (Thigh Injury)
- N. Casale — out (Muscle Injury)
Sassuolo
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- J. Idzes — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Bakola — doubtful (Muscle Injury)
- C. Volpato — out (Thigh Injury)
- S. Walukiewicz — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Pinamonti — out (Injury)
- E. Pieragnolo — out (Knee Injury)
- Y. Paz — out (Knee Injury)
- I. Kone — out (Broken Leg)
- F. Cande — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Boloca — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Berardi — out (Ankle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BolognaLLDWW
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Atalanta 0–1(xG 1.4–0.2)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Lazio 0–1(xG 1.8–0.6)
- Sat 23 May · H v Inter 3–3
- Sun 17 May · A v Atalanta 1–0
- Mon 11 May · A v Napoli 3–2
SassuoloWLLLL
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Torino 2–1(xG 1.1–1.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Atalanta 1–2(xG 2.7–0.9)
- Sun 24 May · A v Parma 0–1
- Sun 17 May · H v Lecce 2–3
- Fri 8 May · A v Torino 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Bologna have won 2 of their last 5.
- Bologna have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Bologna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Bologna's last 5.
- Bologna kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Sassuolo have won 1 of their last 5.
- Sassuolo have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Sassuolo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Sassuolo's last 5.
- Sassuolo kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Bologna have won 4, Sassuolo 1, with 3 drawn.
- Bologna W–D–L
- 4–3–1
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 8
- Both scored
- 5 of 8
- Sassuolo 0–1 Bologna
- Bologna 1–1 Sassuolo
- Bologna 4–2 Sassuolo
- Sassuolo 1–1 Bologna
- Sassuolo 1–1 Bologna
- Bologna 3–0 Sassuolo
- Bologna 1–3 Sassuolo
- Sassuolo 0–3 Bologna
7Context
Bologna
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Sassuolo
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna · Referee: Marco Di Bello, Italy
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Bologna vs Sassuolo?
- Our model makes Bologna the most likely result at 51%. Most likely is not likely — at 51% it does not happen 49% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Bologna vs Sassuolo?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Bologna vs Sassuolo?
- Bologna's reported absences and doubts include N. Zortea, A. Dovbyk, R. Orsolini, J. Rowe and 2 others. Sassuolo's include J. Idzes, D. Bakola, C. Volpato, S. Walukiewicz and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Bologna vs Sassuolo?
- Bologna line up in a 4-2-3-1, Sassuolo in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Sassuolo?
- In their last 8 meetings, Bologna have won 4, Sassuolo 1, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 5.