Both teams to score accuracy
How often what we forecast on both teams to score matches what actually happened, published unedited — the same numbers the overview shows, just this market alone.
In one sentence
Across 58,226 held-out matches, we are well calibrated on both teams to score, an average gap of -0.0pp between what we said and what happened. The chart below shows each probability band against how often it actually came in.
58,226 matches · model 20260928-1724
What we said, against what happened
Each dot is a tenth of the probability range: what we said, against how often it happened. On the dashed line we were exactly right; above it we were too cautious, below it too confident. The rule through each dot is one standard error, and the dot's area is how many matches it rests on — the sparse ones at the ends will always scatter.
Furthest out: when we said 39%, it happened 54% of the time, across 26 matches.
All 5 gate values for this market, unedited
| Gate | Value | Result |
|---|---|---|
| ece btts | 0.0005 | pass |
| max reliability gap pp btts | — | not evaluated |
| max reliability gap pp btts measurable | 0.1652 | pass |
| reliability within sampling envelope btts | 0.1652 | pass |
| brier btts | 0.2476 | pass |
Common questions
How accurate are your both-teams-to-score predictions?
Our both-teams-to-score forecasts are scored and published openly like every other market. The page shows the reliability chart for that market and whether our stated probabilities matched the observed outcomes.