← All accuracy

Match result accuracy

How often what we forecast on match result matches what actually happened, published unedited — the same numbers the overview shows, just this market alone.

In one sentence

Across 174,678 held-out matches, we are well calibrated on match result, an average gap of -0.0pp between what we said and what happened. The chart below shows each probability band against how often it actually came in.

174,678 matches · model 20260928-1724

What we said, against what happened

What we said against what happened, for Home win0%100%100%0%We said 8%; it happened 9% of the time, across 132 matches.We said 16%; it happened 17% of the time, across 1554 matches.We said 26%; it happened 28% of the time, across 5971 matches.We said 36%; it happened 38% of the time, across 15687 matches.We said 44%; it happened 44% of the time, across 20272 matches.We said 54%; it happened 54% of the time, across 9419 matches.We said 64%; it happened 64% of the time, across 3565 matches.We said 74%; it happened 76% of the time, across 1289 matches.We said 83%; it happened 84% of the time, across 319 matches.We said 92%; it happened 94% of the time, across 18 matches.

Each dot is a tenth of the probability range: what we said, against how often it happened. On the dashed line we were exactly right; above it we were too cautious, below it too confident. The rule through each dot is one standard error, and the dot's area is how many matches it rests on — the sparse ones at the ends will always scatter.

Furthest out: when we said 92%, it happened 94% of the time, across 18 matches.

All 12 gate values for this market, unedited
GateValueResult
ece home0.0098pass
max reliability gap pp home2.6136pass
max reliability gap pp home measurable2.4611pass
reliability within sampling envelope home2.4611pass
ece draw0.0108pass
max reliability gap pp draw30.9590fail
max reliability gap pp draw measurable3.3422fail
reliability within sampling envelope draw3.3422pass
ece away0.0099pass
max reliability gap pp away8.1446fail
max reliability gap pp away measurable4.8845fail
reliability within sampling envelope away4.8845pass

Common questions

How accurate are your match-result predictions?

We publish how often the outcome we rated most likely actually happened, decile by decile. The chart shows what we said against what happened, and the summary above states in one sentence whether we were well calibrated, slightly over-confident, or slightly under-confident on this market across the held-out matches we checked.