Over/Under 3.5 accuracy
How often what we forecast on over/under 3.5 matches what actually happened, published unedited — the same numbers the overview shows, just this market alone.
In one sentence
Across 28,436 held-out matches, we are well calibrated on over/under 3.5, an average gap of -0.0pp between what we said and what happened. The chart below shows each probability band against how often it actually came in.
28,436 matches · model 20260904-0011
What we said, against what happened
Each dot is a tenth of the probability range: what we said, against how often it happened. On the dashed line we were exactly right; above it we were too cautious, below it too confident. The rule through each dot is one standard error, and the dot's area is how many matches it rests on — the sparse ones at the ends will always scatter.
Furthest out: when we said 9%, it happened 25% of the time, across 4 matches.
All 5 gate values for this market, unedited
| Gate | Value | Result |
|---|---|---|
| ece over under 3 5 | 0.0074 | pass |
| max reliability gap pp over under 3 5 | — | not evaluated |
| max reliability gap pp over under 3 5 measurable | 2.9534 | pass |
| reliability within sampling envelope over under 3 5 | 2.9534 | fail |
| brier over under 3 5 | 0.2025 | pass |