Liga MX · Apertura - 13

Guadalajara ChivasvNecaxa

·

1 – 0 (FT)

1Headline

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold prices on this match — the market's own numbers are below — but we have published no forecast of our own for these markets yet, so there is nothing to weigh them against.

We don't have a model forecast for this match yet. Forecasts publish once a fixture is in the model's fitting window — usually a few days before kick-off. Here's what we do have right now:

  • • Market prices and price movement
  • • Head-to-head record and recent form
  • • Lineups and injuries where available
  • • Venue, kickoff time, and context

Check back closer to kick-off for our forecast, or explore matches we've already analyzed below.

For comparison, the market gives Guadalajara Chivas a 71% chance. No model forecast has been published for this fixture.

Guadalajara ChivasModel pendingMarket 71%
Guadalajara Chivas:, no forecast published, market 71%

Matches we've forecast today

Here are some matches from today's board that have our model forecasts:

View all today's forecasts →

2Market

Open: 69% home · 18% draw · 13% away

Now: 71% home · 17% draw · 12% away

Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Guadalajara Chivas

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home—vs71%
Draw—vs17%
Away—vs12%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.5—vs70%
Under 2.5—vs30%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.5—vs88%
Under 1.5—vs12%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.5—vs48%
Under 3.5—vs52%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes—vs60%
No—vs40%

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Guadalajara Chivas

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

Necaxa

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Guadalajara ChivasDDLDW

  • Sat 17 Oct · H v Tigres UANL 1–1
  • Sun 11 Oct · A v Atlas 1–1
  • Sat 26 Sep · H v Club Queretaro 0–2
  • Sun 20 Sep · A v Club America 2–2
  • Mon 14 Sep · H v U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3–0

NecaxaLDLLL

  • Sat 17 Oct · H v Atlas 0–2
  • Sun 11 Oct · A v CF Pachuca 3–3
  • Mon 28 Sep · H v Club America 2–4
  • Sat 19 Sep · A v Atletico San Luis 1–3
  • Sat 12 Sep · H v Puebla 0–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Guadalajara Chivas
  • Guadalajara Chivas have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Guadalajara Chivas have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 2 of Guadalajara Chivas's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of Guadalajara Chivas's last 5.
  • Guadalajara Chivas kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
Necaxa
  • Necaxa have won 0 of their last 5.
  • Necaxa have scored in 3 of their last 5.
  • 3 of Necaxa's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of Necaxa's last 5.
  • Necaxa kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Guadalajara Chivas

Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d

Necaxa

Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d

Estadio Akron, Zapopan · Referee: Vicente Jassiel Reynoso Arce

8Red flags