Matchday Briefing

Today’s bets

Nothing yet — we hold no prices for today's matches, so there has been nothing to weigh. This fills in as the odds come in.

The percentage on each row is how sure we are that our number is above the price — not the chance the bet wins, and not a claim about profit. A 78% there and a 50% forecast means we think the outcome happens about half the time and we are fairly confident the market has it too low.

We recommend; we never guarantee. The rule behind these has never been tested. Our calibration is measured on 8,926 historical matches, but that corpus holds no prices — so there is no past market to have beaten, and nothing has ever checked whether an edge we claim is real. Only 17 of our published forecasts have settled against a captured price. That count is the only evidence there will ever be, and it is slow: at roughly seven recommendations a day it takes about two months to tell a five-point edge from noise, and the better part of a year for the two-point minimum we actually use. Nothing here will be settled soon — see accuracy.

Three or more goals, or fewer?

We are not publishing a forecast for this market at the moment: it did not pass our own calibration checks on held-out matches, so we would be showing you a number we do not trust. The market's price is still shown where we have it, and accuracy says which markets currently pass.

Ordered by kick-off, because nothing separates these yet: no lineup, injury or price has landed for any of them. Once they start arriving the order becomes how much we know about each match, which the dots on every row measure.