Matchday Briefing
What we would back today
Nothing yet — we hold no prices for today's matches, so there has been nothing to weigh. This fills in as the odds come in.
The percentage on each row is how sure we are that our number is above the price — not the chance the bet wins, and not a claim about profit. A 78% there and a 50% forecast means we think the outcome happens about half the time and we are fairly confident the market has it too low.
We recommend; we never guarantee. The rule behind these has never been tested. Our calibration is measured on 8,926 historical matches, but that corpus holds no prices — so there is no past market to have beaten, and nothing has ever checked whether an edge we claim is real. Only 17 of our published forecasts have settled against a captured price. That count is the only evidence there will ever be, and it is slow: at roughly seven recommendations a day it takes about two months to tell a five-point edge from noise, and the better part of a year for the two-point minimum we actually use. Nothing here will be settled soon — see accuracy.
Do both sides find the net?
We are not publishing a forecast for this market at the moment: it did not pass our own calibration checks on held-out matches, so we would be showing you a number we do not trust. The market's price is still shown where we have it, and accuracy says which markets currently pass.
Ordered by how much we know — lineups, injuries, market, forecast — not by kick-off time. The dots on each row are that measure.
- Crystal PalacevNottingham ForestPremier Leaguenot checked for this forecast
- Hull CityvEvertonPremier Leaguenot checked for this forecast
- BarcelonavGetafeLa Liganot checked for this forecast
- MalagavEspanyolLa Liganot checked for this forecast
- LevantevSevillaLa Liganot checked for this forecast
- Real MadridvVillarrealLa Liganot checked for this forecast
- AlavesvAtletico MadridLa Liganot checked for this forecast
- Real BetisvOsasunaLa Liganot checked for this forecast
- Real SociedadvDeportivo La CorunaLa Liganot checked for this forecast
- Rayo VallecanovAthletic ClubLa Liganot checked for this forecast
- ElchevCelta VigoLa Liganot checked for this forecast
- Racing SantandervValenciaLa Liganot checked for this forecast
- LiverpoolvManchester CityPremier Leaguenot checked for this forecast
- LaziovMonzaSerie Anot checked for this forecast
- SassuolovAC MilanSerie Anot checked for this forecast
- CagliarivJuventusSerie Anot checked for this forecast
- NapolivFrosinoneSerie Anot checked for this forecast
- GenoavFiorentinaSerie Anot checked for this forecast
- AtalantavVeneziaSerie Anot checked for this forecast
- TorinovUdineseSerie Anot checked for this forecast
- IntervParmaSerie Anot checked for this forecast
- LeccevBolognaSerie Anot checked for this forecast
- ComovAS RomaSerie Anot checked for this forecast
Premier League
La Liga
Serie A
