Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 11

IndependientevInstituto Cordoba

·

1Headline

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold prices on this match — the market's own numbers are below — but we have published no forecast of our own for these markets yet, so there is nothing to weigh them against.

We don't have a model forecast for this match yet. Forecasts publish once a fixture is in the model's fitting window — usually a few days before kick-off. Here's what we do have right now:

  • • Market prices and price movement
  • • Head-to-head record and recent form
  • • Lineups and injuries where available
  • • Venue, kickoff time, and context

Check back closer to kick-off for our forecast, or explore matches we've already analyzed below.

For comparison, the market gives Independiente a 40% chance. No model forecast has been published for this fixture.

IndependienteModel pendingMarket 40%
Independiente:, no forecast published, market 40%

2Market

Open: 41% home · 31% draw · 28% away

Now: 40% home · 31% draw · 29% away

Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Independiente

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home—vs40%
Draw—vs31%
Away—vs29%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.5—vs35%
Under 2.5—vs65%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.5—vs63%
Under 1.5—vs37%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.5—vs16%
Under 3.5—vs84%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes—vs44%
No—vs56%

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Independiente

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

Instituto Cordoba

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

IndependienteWDWLD

  • Sat 19 Sep · A v Union Santa Fe 2–1(xG 0.3–1.3)
  • Sun 13 Sep · H v San Lorenzo 1–1
  • Sun 6 Sep · A v Central Cordoba de Santiago 1–0
  • Sun 30 Aug · H v Gimnasia M. 0–3(xG 0.9–0.7)
  • Sat 22 Aug · H v Independ. Rivadavia 0–0

Instituto CordobaWWLWD

  • Sun 20 Sep · H v Talleres Cordoba 3–1(xG 1.1–0.4)
  • Tue 15 Sep · H v Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2–1(xG 0.6–0.9)
  • Tue 8 Sep · A v Union Santa Fe 2–3
  • Tue 1 Sep · H v San Lorenzo 1–0(xG 1.6–0.3)
  • Sat 22 Aug · A v Atletico Tucuman 0–0

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Independiente
  • Independiente have won 2 of their last 5.
  • Independiente have scored in 3 of their last 5.
  • 2 of Independiente's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of Independiente's last 5.
  • Independiente kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
Instituto Cordoba
  • Instituto Cordoba have won 3 of their last 5.
  • Instituto Cordoba have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 3 of Instituto Cordoba's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of Instituto Cordoba's last 5.
  • Instituto Cordoba kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.

Independiente W–D–L
0–0–1
Over 2.5
1 of 1
Both scored
1 of 1
  • Instituto Cordoba 2–1 Independiente

7Context

Independiente

Rest: 13 days · 1 match in 14d

Instituto Cordoba

Rest: 13 days · 1 match in 14d

Venue unconfirmed

8Red flags