Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 24
Seattle SoundersvSporting Kansas City
Seattle Sounders
Sporting Kansas City·
0 – 1
1Headline
We expect
2–12.3–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (10%), then 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Seattle Sounders and Sporting Kansas City finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Sea / Spo | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Seattle Sounders down the side and Sporting Kansas City across. These 96.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 3.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 37% against 49%.
What we think
- Seattle Sounders67% · Match result
- Over 2.561% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 63% against a market price of 51% — 12 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 69% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.7 goals, and 2.2 expected across the 4 we have expected goals for.
- 19 players reported unavailable — 11 for Seattle Sounders, 8 for Sporting Kansas City.
Our forecast makes Seattle Sounders the most likely of the three results, at 67%. Most likely is not likely: at 67% this result does not happen 33% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 63%.
Verify this forecast → Published Tue 29 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 61%, against the market’s 71% — a 10 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Seattle Sounders a 63% chance. Before kick-off our model made it 67%;with the current score at 45′ it is 23%.
2Market
Open: 64% home · 19% draw · 17% away
Now: 63% home · 20% draw · 17% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Seattle Sounders
Solid: the market over 7 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Seattle Sounders
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- P. Rothrock — out (Tendon Injury)
- P. de La Vega — out (Calf Injury)
- J. Ragen — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Roldan — out (Muscle Injury)
- P. Arriola — out (Calf Injury)
- Y. Gomez Andrade — out (Muscle Injury)
- H. Dotson — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Morris — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Roldan — out (Hip Injury)
- Kim Kee-Hee — out (Muscle Injury)
- S. Hawkins — out (Muscle Injury)
Sporting Kansas City
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- Diego Borges — out (Groin Injury)
- Capita — out (Hamstring Injury)
- I. James — out (Knee Injury)
- O. Blorian — out (Chest Injury)
- Z. Bassong — out (Calf Injury)
- J. Davis — out (Injury)
- K. Agyabeng — out (Red Card)
- J. Reynolds — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Seattle SoundersWWDDD
- Sun 27 Sep · H v Minnesota United FC 3–1
- Thu 24 Sep · H v Real Salt Lake 2–0(xG 0.9–0.4)
- Sun 20 Sep · A v Colorado Rapids 3–3(xG 0.9–1.6)
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Los Angeles Galaxy 1–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v New York Red Bulls 0–0
Sporting Kansas CityWLWLL
- Sun 27 Sep · A v Houston Dynamo 2–0
- Sun 20 Sep · H v Philadelphia Union 3–4(xG 1.0–0.7)
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Los Angeles FC 3–1
- Sun 6 Sep · A v FC Dallas 3–4
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Vancouver Whitecaps 0–3(xG 0.4–3.0)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Seattle Sounders have won 2 of their last 5.
- Seattle Sounders have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Seattle Sounders's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Seattle Sounders's last 5.
- Seattle Sounders kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Sporting Kansas City have won 2 of their last 5.
- Sporting Kansas City have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Sporting Kansas City's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Sporting Kansas City's last 5.
- Sporting Kansas City kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Seattle Sounders W–D–L
- 0–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Sporting Kansas City 1–1 Seattle Sounders
7Context
Seattle Sounders
Rest: 5 days · 3 matches in 14d
Sporting Kansas City
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Lumen Field, Seattle · Referee: Jair Marrufo
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City?
- Our model makes Seattle Sounders the most likely result at 67%. Most likely is not likely — at 67% it does not happen 33% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 63%.
- How many goals are expected in Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 61%, and under 2.5 at 39%.
- Will both teams score in Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City?
- Seattle Sounders's reported absences and doubts include P. Rothrock, P. de La Vega, J. Ragen, C. Roldan and 7 others. Sporting Kansas City's include Diego Borges, Capita, I. James, O. Blorian and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City?
- Seattle Sounders line up in a 4-2-3-1, Sporting Kansas City in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.