Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 26
Sporting Kansas CityvPhiladelphia Union
Sporting Kansas City
Philadelphia Union·
3 – 4 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.3–2.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 1-2 (9%), 0-2 (7%). Sporting Kansas City and Philadelphia Union finish on some other score 73% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Spo / Phi | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Sporting Kansas City down the side and Philadelphia Union across. These 98.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 38% against 47%.
What we think
- Philadelphia Union51% · Match result
- Over 2.561% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 62% against a market price of 53% — 9 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 65% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.7 goals, and 4.0 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 18 players reported unavailable — 8 for Sporting Kansas City, 10 for Philadelphia Union.
Our forecast makes Philadelphia Union the most likely of the three results, at 51% (we would not be surprised by anything from 39% to 63%). Most likely is not likely: at 51% this result does not happen 49% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 64%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 61%, against the market’s 68% — a 7 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Philadelphia Union a 64% chance. Our model makes it 51%.
2Market
Open: 16% home · 19% draw · 64% away
Now: 16% home · 19% draw · 64% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sporting Kansas City
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- Diego Borges — out (Groin Injury)
- Capita — out (Hamstring Injury)
- I. James — out (Knee Injury)
- O. Blorian — out (Chest Injury)
- Z. Bassong — out (Calf Injury)
- J. Davis — out (Injury)
- K. Agyabeng — out (Red Card)
- J. Reynolds — out (Muscle Injury)
Philadelphia Union
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- F. Westfield — out (International duty)
- D. Jean Jacques — out (International duty)
- A. Blake — out (International duty)
- E. Davis III — out (Injury)
- J. Sery Larsen — out (Shoulder Injury)
- O. Makhanya — out (Yellow Cards)
- E. Alladoh — out (Personal Reasons)
- C. Sullivan — out (International duty)
- N. Pierre — out (International duty)
- P. Ndinga — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Sporting Kansas CityWLLLD
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Los Angeles FC 3–1
- Sun 6 Sep · A v FC Dallas 3–4
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Vancouver Whitecaps 0–3(xG 0.4–3.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Atlanta United FC 1–2
- Thu 20 Aug · H v St. Louis City 1–1
Philadelphia UnionWWWWD
- Mon 14 Sep · A v San Diego 5–0
- Wed 9 Sep · H v FC Cincinnati 5–0
- Sat 5 Sep · H v CF Montreal 2–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v New York Red Bulls 3–1(xG 2.5–2.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Austin 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sporting Kansas City have won 1 of their last 5.
- Sporting Kansas City have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Sporting Kansas City's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Sporting Kansas City's last 5.
- Sporting Kansas City kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Philadelphia Union have won 4 of their last 5.
- Philadelphia Union have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Philadelphia Union's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Philadelphia Union's last 5.
- Philadelphia Union kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Sporting Kansas City
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Philadelphia Union
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: E. Koroleva
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
- Our model makes Philadelphia Union the most likely result at 51%. Most likely is not likely — at 51% it does not happen 49% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 64%.
- How many goals are expected in Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 61%, and under 2.5 at 39%.
- Will both teams score in Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
- Sporting Kansas City's reported absences and doubts include Diego Borges, Capita, I. James, O. Blorian and 4 others. Philadelphia Union's include F. Westfield, D. Jean Jacques, A. Blake, E. Davis III and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
- Sporting Kansas City line up in a 4-4-2, Philadelphia Union in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.