Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 26
Houston DynamovFC Cincinnati
Houston Dynamo
FC Cincinnati·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (7%). Houston Dynamo and FC Cincinnati finish on some other score 73% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Hou / FC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Houston Dynamo down the side and FC Cincinnati across. These 98.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 36% against 39%.
What we think
- Houston Dynamo47% · Match result
- Over 2.560% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Houston Dynamo the most likely of the three results, at 47% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 60%). Most likely is not likely: at 47% this result does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 48%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, which is what the market has it at too (61%).
For comparison, the market gives Houston Dynamo a 48% chance. Our model makes it 47%.
2Market
Open: 48% home · 24% draw · 28% away
Now: 48% home · 24% draw · 28% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Houston Dynamo
Confirmed · 5-3-2
- A. Resch — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- L. Foster — out (Inactive)
- Felipe Andrade — out (Yellow Cards)
- M. Saracchi — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- Lucas Halter — out (Yellow Cards)
- Antonio Carlos — out (Knee Injury)
- E. Sviatchenko — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- N. Quinones — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- J. Maurer — out (Concussion)
- M. Arana — out (International duty)
FC Cincinnati
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- M. Robinson — out (International duty)
- E. Echenique — out (Inactive)
- K. Denkey — out (International duty)
- A. Chirila — out (International duty)
- O. Nwobodo — out (Red Card)
- K. Fletcher — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Miazga — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Powell — out (Leg Injury)
- R. Celentano — out (Leg Injury)
- P. Bucha — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Houston DynamoLWDDL
- Sun 13 Sep · A v San Jose Earthquakes 0–1
- Thu 10 Sep · H v Real Salt Lake 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Charlotte 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v San Jose Earthquakes 0–0(xG 0.7–1.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v St. Louis City 1–2
FC CincinnatiDLLDW
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Charlotte 3–3
- Wed 9 Sep · A v Philadelphia Union 0–5
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Nashville SC 0–4(xG 1.9–1.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Seattle Sounders 1–1
- Wed 19 Aug · H v New York City FC 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Houston Dynamo have won 1 of their last 5.
- Houston Dynamo have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Houston Dynamo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Houston Dynamo's last 5.
- Houston Dynamo kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- FC Cincinnati have won 1 of their last 5.
- FC Cincinnati have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of FC Cincinnati's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of FC Cincinnati's last 5.
- FC Cincinnati kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Houston Dynamo
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
FC Cincinnati
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Shell Energy Stadium, Houston · Referee: J. Marrufo
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati?
- Our model makes Houston Dynamo the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 48%.
- How many goals are expected in Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
- Will both teams score in Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati?
- Houston Dynamo's reported absences and doubts include A. Resch, L. Foster, Felipe Andrade, M. Saracchi and 6 others. FC Cincinnati's include M. Robinson, E. Echenique, K. Denkey, A. Chirila and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati?
- Houston Dynamo line up in a 5-3-2, FC Cincinnati in a 3-5-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.