Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 26
Minnesota United FCvLos Angeles Galaxy
Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles Galaxy·
2 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). Minnesota United FC and Los Angeles Galaxy finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Min / Los | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Minnesota United FC down the side and Los Angeles Galaxy across. These 98.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 34% against 45%.
What we think
- Minnesota United FC48% · Match result
- Over 2.558% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 66% against a market price of 55% — 11 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 70% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 4.6 goals, and 4.2 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 20 players reported unavailable — 8 for Minnesota United FC, 12 for Los Angeles Galaxy.
Our forecast makes Minnesota United FC the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 59%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 57%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 58%, against the market’s 68% — a 10 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Minnesota United FC a 57% chance. Our model makes it 48%.
2Market
Open: 57% home · 21% draw · 21% away
Now: 57% home · 21% draw · 21% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Minnesota United FC
Confirmed · 3-4-1-2
- N. Triantis — out (International duty)
- J. Pereyra — out (Muscle Injury)
- C. Harvey — out (International duty)
- M. Boxall — out (Yellow Cards)
- B. Hlongwane — out (Knee Injury)
- P. Stroud — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Rodriguez — out (International duty)
- A. Smir — out (International duty)
Los Angeles Galaxy
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- S. Roberto — out (Shoulder Injury)
- J. Paintsil — out (Thigh Injury)
- E. Cerrillo — out (Yellow Cards)
- J. Glesnes — out (Yellow Cards)
- L. Sanabria — out (Yellow Cards)
- C. Garces — out (Red Card)
- E. Wynder — out (Injury)
- E. Thommy — out (Injury)
- Matheus Nascimento — out (Muscle Injury)
- C. Rindov — out (Leg Injury)
- H. Miller — out (International duty)
- H. Lozano — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Minnesota United FCLLLDW
- Sun 13 Sep · A v St. Louis City 2–4
- Thu 10 Sep · H v FC Dallas 1–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Portland Timbers 4–5
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Orlando City SC 3–3(xG 3.6–1.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v San Jose Earthquakes 5–1
Los Angeles GalaxyDLWLD
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Seattle Sounders 1–1
- Thu 10 Sep · A v Vancouver Whitecaps 0–3
- Sun 6 Sep · H v New England Revolution 2–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v San Diego 1–3(xG 0.8–2.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v CF Montreal 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Minnesota United FC have won 1 of their last 5.
- Minnesota United FC have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Minnesota United FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Minnesota United FC's last 5.
- Minnesota United FC kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Los Angeles Galaxy have won 1 of their last 5.
- Los Angeles Galaxy have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Los Angeles Galaxy's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Los Angeles Galaxy's last 5.
- Los Angeles Galaxy kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Minnesota United FC W–D–L
- 1–0–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Los Angeles Galaxy 1–2 Minnesota United FC
7Context
Minnesota United FC
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
Los Angeles Galaxy
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
Allianz Field, Saint Paul · Referee: S. Demianchuk
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy?
- Our model makes Minnesota United FC the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 57%.
- How many goals are expected in Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 58%, and under 2.5 at 42%.
- Will both teams score in Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy?
- Minnesota United FC's reported absences and doubts include N. Triantis, J. Pereyra, C. Harvey, M. Boxall and 4 others. Los Angeles Galaxy's include S. Roberto, J. Paintsil, E. Cerrillo, J. Glesnes and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy?
- Minnesota United FC line up in a 3-4-1-2, Los Angeles Galaxy in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.