Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 26
St. Louis CityvToronto FC
St. Louis City
Toronto FC·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). St. Louis City and Toronto FC finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| St. / Tor | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, St. Louis City down the side and Toronto FC across. These 98.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 54% against 67%.
What we think
- St. Louis City55% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 68% against a market price of 55% — 13 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 71% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 4.2 goals, and 2.0 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 22 players reported unavailable — 10 for St. Louis City, 12 for Toronto FC.
Our forecast makes St. Louis City the most likely of the three results, at 55% (we would not be surprised by anything from 43% to 67%). Most likely is not likely: at 55% this result does not happen 45% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 59%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 67% — a 13 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives St. Louis City a 59% chance. Our model makes it 55%.
2Market
Open: 59% home · 22% draw · 19% away
Now: 59% home · 22% draw · 19% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
St. Louis City
Confirmed · 3-4-3
- B. McSorley — doubtful (Ankle Injury)
- P. Ault — doubtful (Ankle Injury)
- C. Wallem — out (Yellow Cards)
- T. Ostrak — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Pearce — out (Injury)
- C. Durkin — out (Yellow Cards)
- S. Jeong — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Orozco — out (Hamstring Injury)
- T. Totland — out (Leg Injury)
- D. Downs — out (International duty)
Toronto FC
Confirmed · 5-3-2
- W. Zimmerman — out (Yellow Cards)
- R. Laryea — out (International duty)
- B. Kuscevic — out (International duty)
- M. Cimermancic — out (International duty)
- D. Mihailovic — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Osorio — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Kerr — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- N. Gomis — out (Thigh Injury)
- H. Wingo — out (Hamstring Injury)
- L. Stefanovic — out (Foot Injury)
- J. Vilsaint — out (Groin Injury)
- R. Chukwu — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
St. Louis CityWDWDW
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Minnesota United FC 4–2
- Thu 10 Sep · A v Portland Timbers 2–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Vancouver Whitecaps 3–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v FC Dallas 3–3(xG 1.9–1.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Houston Dynamo 2–1
Toronto FCLWDDW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Orlando City SC 0–3
- Wed 9 Sep · H v Nashville SC 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Chicago Fire 4–4
- Sat 29 Aug · H v New York City FC 1–1(xG 0.8–0.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Inter Miami 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- St. Louis City have won 3 of their last 5.
- St. Louis City have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of St. Louis City's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of St. Louis City's last 5.
- St. Louis City kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Toronto FC have won 2 of their last 5.
- Toronto FC have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Toronto FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Toronto FC's last 5.
- Toronto FC kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
St. Louis City
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
Toronto FC
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
CITYPARK, St. Louis · Referee: L. Szpala
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win St. Louis City vs Toronto FC?
- Our model makes St. Louis City the most likely result at 55%. Most likely is not likely — at 55% it does not happen 45% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 59%.
- How many goals are expected in St. Louis City vs Toronto FC?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in St. Louis City vs Toronto FC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for St. Louis City vs Toronto FC?
- St. Louis City's reported absences and doubts include B. McSorley, P. Ault, C. Wallem, T. Ostrak and 6 others. Toronto FC's include W. Zimmerman, R. Laryea, B. Kuscevic, M. Cimermancic and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for St. Louis City vs Toronto FC?
- St. Louis City line up in a 3-4-3, Toronto FC in a 5-3-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.