Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 25
Orlando City SCvToronto FC
Orlando City SC
Toronto FC·
3 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.0–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Orlando City SC and Toronto FC finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Orl / Tor | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Orlando City SC down the side and Toronto FC across. These 98.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 37% against 46%.
What we think
- Orlando City SC57% · Match result
- Over 2.560% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Orlando City SC the most likely of the three results, at 57% (we would not be surprised by anything from 45% to 68%). Most likely is not likely: at 57% this result does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 52%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, against the market’s 68% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Orlando City SC a 52% chance. Our model makes it 57%.
2Market
Open: 51% home · 23% draw · 27% away
Now: 52% home · 23% draw · 26% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Toronto FC
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Orlando City SC
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- T. Spicer — out (International duty)
- M. Pasalic — out (International duty)
- W. Cartagena — out (International duty)
- D. Brekalo — out (International duty)
- A. Griezmann — out (Thigh Injury)
- G. Dorsey — out (Back Injury)
- E. Atuesta — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Marin — out (Thigh Injury)
- C. Guske — out (International duty)
- D. McGuire — out (Leg Injury)
- J. Gerbet — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Ellis — out (International duty)
Toronto FC
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- W. Zimmerman — out (Yellow Cards)
- R. Laryea — out (International duty)
- B. Kuscevic — out (International duty)
- M. Cimermancic — out (International duty)
- D. Mihailovic — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Osorio — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Kerr — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- N. Gomis — out (Thigh Injury)
- H. Wingo — out (Hamstring Injury)
- L. Stefanovic — out (Foot Injury)
- J. Vilsaint — out (Groin Injury)
- R. Chukwu — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Orlando City SCWWDWL
- Wed 9 Sep · A v Atlanta United FC 3–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v San Diego 1–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Minnesota United FC 3–3(xG 1.3–3.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Real Salt Lake 2–1
- Wed 19 Aug · H v Chicago Fire 1–2
Toronto FCWDDWD
- Wed 9 Sep · H v Nashville SC 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Chicago Fire 4–4
- Sat 29 Aug · H v New York City FC 1–1(xG 0.8–0.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Inter Miami 2–1
- Wed 19 Aug · H v Charlotte 3–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Orlando City SC have won 3 of their last 5.
- Orlando City SC have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Orlando City SC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Orlando City SC's last 5.
- Orlando City SC kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Toronto FC have won 2 of their last 5.
- Toronto FC have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Toronto FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Toronto FC's last 5.
- Toronto FC kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Orlando City SC
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Toronto FC
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: J. Freemon
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC?
- Our model makes Orlando City SC the most likely result at 57%. Most likely is not likely — at 57% it does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 52%.
- How many goals are expected in Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
- Will both teams score in Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC?
- Orlando City SC's reported absences and doubts include T. Spicer, M. Pasalic, W. Cartagena, D. Brekalo and 8 others. Toronto FC's include W. Zimmerman, R. Laryea, B. Kuscevic, M. Cimermancic and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC?
- Orlando City SC line up in a 4-4-2, Toronto FC in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.