Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 25
Columbus CrewvNew York Red Bulls
Columbus Crew
New York Red Bulls·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.0–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Columbus Crew and New York Red Bulls finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Col / New | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Columbus Crew down the side and New York Red Bulls across. These 98.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 37% against 50%.
What we think
- Columbus Crew57% · Match result
- Over 2.560% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 63% against a market price of 50% — 13 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 70% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.7 goals, and 3.2 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 25 players reported unavailable — 11 for Columbus Crew, 14 for New York Red Bulls.
Our forecast makes Columbus Crew the most likely of the three results, at 57% (we would not be surprised by anything from 48% to 68%). Most likely is not likely: at 57% this result does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 55%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, against the market’s 72% — a 12 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Columbus Crew a 55% chance. Our model makes it 57%.
2Market
Open: 55% home · 22% draw · 23% away
Now: 55% home · 22% draw · 24% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards New York Red Bulls
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Columbus Crew
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- R. Camacho — out (Foot Injury)
- J. Thiare — out (Leg Injury)
- A. Gomes — out (Thigh Injury)
- D. Chambost — out (Ankle Injury)
- W. Abou Ali — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Farsi — out (Hernia)
- S. Bangoura — out (Ankle Injury)
- L. Giaccone — doubtful (Injury)
- G. Tapia — out (International duty)
- S. Moreira — out (International duty)
- N. Hagen — out (International duty)
New York Red Bulls
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- J. Marshall-Rutty — doubtful (Injury)
- A. Marcucci — doubtful (Knee Injury)
- J. Che — doubtful (Ankle Injury)
- M. Dos Santos — out (International duty)
- R. Mosquera — out (Inactive)
- R. Donkor — out (Yellow Cards)
- C. Harper — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Nealis — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Sofo — doubtful (Ankle Injury)
- O. Valencia — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Mehmeti — out (Red Card)
- D. Ruiz — out (International duty)
- M. Jimenez — out (International duty)
- J. Hall — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Columbus CrewLWLLL
- Wed 9 Sep · A v DC United 1–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Colorado Rapids 3–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v New England Revolution 1–3(xG 0.4–1.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Nashville SC 2–3
- Wed 19 Aug · H v CF Montreal 1–2
New York Red BullsLDLDL
- Thu 10 Sep · A v Los Angeles FC 0–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Seattle Sounders 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Philadelphia Union 1–3(xG 2.0–2.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Chicago Fire 1–1
- Wed 19 Aug · H v Nashville SC 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Columbus Crew have won 1 of their last 5.
- Columbus Crew have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Columbus Crew's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Columbus Crew's last 5.
- Columbus Crew kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- New York Red Bulls have won 0 of their last 5.
- New York Red Bulls have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 1 of New York Red Bulls's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of New York Red Bulls's last 5.
- New York Red Bulls kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Columbus Crew W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- New York Red Bulls 3–2 Columbus Crew
7Context
Columbus Crew
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
New York Red Bulls
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
ScottsMiracle-Gro Field, Columbus · Referee: R. Touchan
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls?
- Our model makes Columbus Crew the most likely result at 57%. Most likely is not likely — at 57% it does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 55%.
- How many goals are expected in Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
- Will both teams score in Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls?
- Columbus Crew's reported absences and doubts include R. Camacho, J. Thiare, A. Gomes, D. Chambost and 7 others. New York Red Bulls's include J. Marshall-Rutty, A. Marcucci, J. Che, M. Dos Santos and 10 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls?
- Columbus Crew line up in a 4-4-2, New York Red Bulls in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.