Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 25
FC CincinnativCharlotte
FC Cincinnati
Charlotte·
3 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%). FC Cincinnati and Charlotte finish on some other score 74% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| FC / Cha | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, FC Cincinnati down the side and Charlotte across. These 98.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 38% against 50%.
What we think
- FC Cincinnati50% · Match result
- Over 2.561% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 62% against a market price of 50% — 12 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 69% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.1 goals, and 3.1 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 18 players reported unavailable — 10 for FC Cincinnati, 8 for Charlotte.
Our forecast makes FC Cincinnati the most likely of the three results, at 50% (we would not be surprised by anything from 39% to 62%). Most likely is not likely: at 50% this result does not happen 50% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 46%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 61%, against the market’s 71% — a 10 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives FC Cincinnati a 46% chance. Our model makes it 50%.
2Market
Open: 48% home · 22% draw · 30% away
Now: 46% home · 22% draw · 31% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Charlotte
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Cincinnati
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- M. Robinson — out (International duty)
- E. Echenique — out (Inactive)
- K. Denkey — out (International duty)
- A. Chirila — out (International duty)
- O. Nwobodo — out (Red Card)
- K. Fletcher — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Miazga — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Powell — out (Leg Injury)
- R. Celentano — out (Leg Injury)
- P. Bucha — out (International duty)
Charlotte
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- A. Johnson — out (International duty)
- D. Schnegg — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Westwood — out (Red Card)
- N. Berchimas — out (Foot Injury)
- H. Kessler — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- I. Toklomati — out (International duty)
- R. Aloko — out (International duty)
- L. Abada — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC CincinnatiLLDWD
- Wed 9 Sep · A v Philadelphia Union 0–5
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Nashville SC 0–4(xG 1.9–1.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Seattle Sounders 1–1
- Wed 19 Aug · H v New York City FC 2–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Orlando City SC 1–1
CharlotteWDWWD
- Wed 9 Sep · A v CF Montreal 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Houston Dynamo 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Atlanta United FC 2–0(xG 1.6–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v DC United 3–1
- Wed 19 Aug · A v Toronto FC 3–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Cincinnati have won 1 of their last 5.
- FC Cincinnati have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of FC Cincinnati's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of FC Cincinnati's last 5.
- FC Cincinnati kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Charlotte have won 3 of their last 5.
- Charlotte have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Charlotte's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Charlotte's last 5.
- Charlotte kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- FC Cincinnati W–D–L
- 0–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Charlotte 2–2 FC Cincinnati
7Context
FC Cincinnati
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Charlotte
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
TQL Stadium, Cincinnati · Referee: P. Lauziere
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte?
- Our model makes FC Cincinnati the most likely result at 50%. Most likely is not likely — at 50% it does not happen 50% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 46%.
- How many goals are expected in FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 61%, and under 2.5 at 39%.
- Will both teams score in FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte?
- FC Cincinnati's reported absences and doubts include M. Robinson, E. Echenique, K. Denkey, A. Chirila and 6 others. Charlotte's include A. Johnson, D. Schnegg, A. Westwood, N. Berchimas and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte?
- FC Cincinnati line up in a 3-5-2, Charlotte in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.