Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 25
Inter MiamivNashville SC
Inter Miami
Nashville SC·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.2–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–1 (9%), then 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Inter Miami and Nashville SC finish on some other score 75% of the time.
| Int / Nas | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Inter Miami down the side and Nashville SC across. These 97.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 42% against 49%.
What we think
- Inter Miami54% · Match result
- Over 2.566% · Goals
- Yes63% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Inter Miami the most likely of the three results, at 54% (we would not be surprised by anything from 41% to 64%). Most likely is not likely: at 54% this result does not happen 46% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 47%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 66%, against the market’s 71% — a 5 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Inter Miami a 47% chance. Our model makes it 54%.
2Market
Open: 47% home · 23% draw · 30% away
Now: 47% home · 23% draw · 30% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Inter Miami
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- T. Segovia — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Fray — out (Injury)
- G. Berterame — out (International duty)
- M. Silvetti — out (Injury)
- S. Morales — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Lujan — out (Leg Injury)
- R. de Paul — out (Rest)
- S. Reguilon — out (Injury)
- M. Falcon — out (Calf Injury)
- D. Ayala — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Allende — out (Knee Injury)
- D. St.Clair — out (International duty)
- D. Pinter — out (International duty)
- M. Galarza — out (International duty)
- L. Delinois — out (International duty)
- F. Caicedo — out (International duty)
Nashville SC
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- P. Yazbek — out (International duty)
- X. Valdez — out (International duty)
- C. Applewhite — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- R. Baker-Whiting — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- E. Tagseth — out (Leg Injury)
- S. Surridge — out (Back Injury)
- W. Madrigal — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- B. Schwake — out (International duty)
- A. Qasem — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Inter MiamiDDWLD
- Thu 10 Sep · A v Chicago Fire 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Atlanta United FC 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v CF Montreal 7–1(xG 3.0–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Toronto FC 1–2
- Wed 19 Aug · A v Philadelphia Union 2–2
Nashville SCLDWWW
- Wed 9 Sep · A v Toronto FC 1–2
- Fri 4 Sep · A v New York City FC 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v FC Cincinnati 4–0(xG 1.8–1.9)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Columbus Crew 3–2
- Wed 19 Aug · A v New York Red Bulls 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Inter Miami have won 1 of their last 5.
- Inter Miami have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Inter Miami's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Inter Miami's last 5.
- Inter Miami kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Nashville SC have won 3 of their last 5.
- Nashville SC have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Nashville SC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Nashville SC's last 5.
- Nashville SC kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Inter Miami W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Nashville SC 4–1 Inter Miami
7Context
Inter Miami
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Nashville SC
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Nu Stadium, Fort Lauderdale · Referee: G. Gonzales
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Inter Miami vs Nashville SC?
- Our model makes Inter Miami the most likely result at 54%. Most likely is not likely — at 54% it does not happen 46% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 47%.
- How many goals are expected in Inter Miami vs Nashville SC?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 66%, and under 2.5 at 34%.
- Will both teams score in Inter Miami vs Nashville SC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 63% chance, against 37% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Inter Miami vs Nashville SC?
- Inter Miami's reported absences and doubts include T. Segovia, I. Fray, G. Berterame, M. Silvetti and 12 others. Nashville SC's include P. Yazbek, X. Valdez, C. Applewhite, R. Baker-Whiting and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Inter Miami vs Nashville SC?
- Inter Miami line up in a 4-3-3, Nashville SC in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.