Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 25
DC UnitedvAtlanta United FC
DC United
Atlanta United FC·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). DC United and Atlanta United FC finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| DC / Atl | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, DC United down the side and Atlanta United FC across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 54% against 60%.
What we think
- DC United43% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes DC United the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 52%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 44%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 60% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives DC United a 44% chance. Our model makes it 43%.
2Market
Open: 44% home · 25% draw · 31% away
Now: 44% home · 25% draw · 31% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
DC United
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- L. Munteanu — out (International duty)
- T. Baribo — out (International duty)
- Peglow — out (Yellow Cards)
- K. Rowles — out (Thigh Injury)
- S. Hefti — out (Yellow Cards)
- S. Nealis — out (Broken collarbone)
- M. Peltola — out (International duty)
- N. Ordaz — out (International duty)
Atlanta United FC
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- F. Picault — out (International duty)
- P. Diaz — out (International duty)
- M. Almiron — out (International duty)
- C. Sanchez — out (Injury)
- S. Alzate — out (Illness)
- E. Latte Lath — out (Transfer negotiations)
- T. Jacob — out (Yellow Cards)
- W. Reilly — out (Ankle Injury)
- A. Fortune — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Sergio Santos — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Galarza — out (Injury)
- A. Miranchuk — out (International duty)
- J. Alonso — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
DC UnitedWDLLD
- Wed 9 Sep · H v Columbus Crew 2–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Los Angeles FC 0–0(xG 1.2–1.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Charlotte 1–3
- Wed 19 Aug · H v New England Revolution 0–3
- Sat 15 Aug · A v CF Montreal 1–1
Atlanta United FCLDLWW
- Wed 9 Sep · H v Orlando City SC 2–3
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Inter Miami 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Charlotte 0–2(xG 0.9–1.6)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Sporting Kansas City 2–1
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Minnesota United FC 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- DC United have won 1 of their last 5.
- DC United have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of DC United's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of DC United's last 5.
- DC United kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Atlanta United FC have won 2 of their last 5.
- Atlanta United FC have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Atlanta United FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Atlanta United FC's last 5.
- Atlanta United FC kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- DC United W–D–L
- 0–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Atlanta United FC 0–0 DC United
7Context
DC United
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Atlanta United FC
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Audi Field, Washington · Referee: M. Badawi
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win DC United vs Atlanta United FC?
- Our model makes DC United the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 44%.
- How many goals are expected in DC United vs Atlanta United FC?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in DC United vs Atlanta United FC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for DC United vs Atlanta United FC?
- DC United's reported absences and doubts include L. Munteanu, T. Baribo, Peglow, K. Rowles and 4 others. Atlanta United FC's include F. Picault, P. Diaz, M. Almiron, C. Sanchez and 9 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for DC United vs Atlanta United FC?
- DC United line up in a 4-3-3, Atlanta United FC in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.