Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 26
FC DallasvAustin
FC Dallas
Austin·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.0–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). FC Dallas and Austin finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| FC / Aus | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, FC Dallas down the side and Austin across. These 98.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 35% against 40%.
What we think
- FC Dallas60% · Match result
- Over 2.558% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes FC Dallas the most likely of the three results, at 60% (we would not be surprised by anything from 50% to 70%). Most likely is not likely: at 60% this result does not happen 40% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 57%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 58%, against the market’s 62% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives FC Dallas a 57% chance. Our model makes it 60%.
2Market
Open: 57% home · 22% draw · 20% away
Now: 57% home · 22% draw · 20% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Dallas
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- Ramiro — out (Yellow Cards)
- P. Musa — out (International duty)
- B. Kamungo — out (International duty)
- O. Urhoghide — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. A. Julio Santos — out (Injury)
- Geovane Jesus — out (Knee Injury)
- R. Binyamin — out (International duty)
Austin
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- M. Uzuni — out (International duty)
- Guilherme Biro — out (Yellow Cards)
- P. Placheta — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- O. Wolff — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Desler — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- B. Hines-Ike — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Nelson — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- D. Pereira — out (Injury)
- J. Rosales — out (Yellow Cards)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC DallasWWWDL
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Portland Timbers 2–1
- Thu 10 Sep · A v Minnesota United FC 2–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Sporting Kansas City 4–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v St. Louis City 3–3(xG 1.0–1.9)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Vancouver Whitecaps 0–5
AustinWDDWD
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Vancouver Whitecaps 2–1
- Thu 10 Sep · H v Colorado Rapids 1–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v San Jose Earthquakes 1–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Portland Timbers 2–1(xG 1.2–2.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Philadelphia Union 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Dallas have won 3 of their last 5.
- FC Dallas have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 5 of FC Dallas's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of FC Dallas's last 5.
- FC Dallas kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Austin have won 2 of their last 5.
- Austin have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Austin's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Austin's last 5.
- Austin kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- FC Dallas W–D–L
- 1–0–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Austin 1–2 FC Dallas
7Context
FC Dallas
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
Austin
Rest: 6 days · 3 matches in 14d
Toyota Stadium, Frisco · Referee: A. Chapman
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Dallas vs Austin?
- Our model makes FC Dallas the most likely result at 60%. Most likely is not likely — at 60% it does not happen 40% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 57%.
- How many goals are expected in FC Dallas vs Austin?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 58%, and under 2.5 at 42%.
- Will both teams score in FC Dallas vs Austin?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for FC Dallas vs Austin?
- FC Dallas's reported absences and doubts include Ramiro, P. Musa, B. Kamungo, O. Urhoghide and 3 others. Austin's include M. Uzuni, Guilherme Biro, P. Placheta, O. Wolff and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for FC Dallas vs Austin?
- FC Dallas line up in a 3-4-2-1, Austin in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.