Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 26
Real Salt LakevVancouver Whitecaps
Real Salt Lake
Vancouver Whitecaps·
0 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.3–1.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Real Salt Lake and Vancouver Whitecaps finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Rea / Van | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Real Salt Lake down the side and Vancouver Whitecaps across. These 99.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 33% against 41%.
What we think
- Vancouver Whitecaps46% · Match result
- Over 2.557% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Vancouver Whitecaps the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 56%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 55%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 57%, against the market’s 63% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Vancouver Whitecaps a 55% chance. Our model makes it 46%.
2Market
Open: 22% home · 23% draw · 55% away
Now: 22% home · 23% draw · 55% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Real Salt Lake
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- D. Zagar — out (Inactive)
- J. Sanabria — out (International duty)
- L. Moisa — out (International duty)
- S. Lobjanidze — out (International duty)
- A. Katranis — out (Groin Injury)
- D. Luna — out (Knee Injury)
- L. Engel — out (Hamstring Injury)
- J. J. Arias — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Guilavogui — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Hezarkhani — out (Toe Injury)
- Z. Booth — out (Hamstring Injury)
- D. Yedlin — out (Yellow Cards)
- K. Henry — out (Muscle Injury)
Vancouver Whitecaps
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- C. Sabaly — out (Illness)
- R. Priso — out (International duty)
- E. Ocampo — out (International duty)
- M. Gherasimencov — out (International duty)
- A. Cubas — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Badwal — out (Injury)
- T. Muller — out (Leg Injury)
- S. Berhalter — out (Transfer negotiations)
- R. Veselinovic — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Poku — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. G. Cabrera Nakamura — out (Foot Injury)
- E. Sabbi — out (Groin Injury)
- S. Adekugbe — out (Muscle Injury)
- S. Schonlau — out (Hamstring Injury)
- B. Halbouni — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Real Salt LakeLLDLL
- Sun 13 Sep · H v New York City FC 0–2
- Thu 10 Sep · A v Houston Dynamo 1–2
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Los Angeles FC 2–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Colorado Rapids 0–1(xG 0.1–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Orlando City SC 1–2
Vancouver WhitecapsLWLWW
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Austin 1–2
- Thu 10 Sep · H v Los Angeles Galaxy 3–0
- Sun 6 Sep · H v St. Louis City 1–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Sporting Kansas City 3–0(xG 3.0–0.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v FC Dallas 5–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Real Salt Lake have won 0 of their last 5.
- Real Salt Lake have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Real Salt Lake's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Real Salt Lake's last 5.
- Real Salt Lake kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Vancouver Whitecaps have won 3 of their last 5.
- Vancouver Whitecaps have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Vancouver Whitecaps's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Vancouver Whitecaps's last 5.
- Vancouver Whitecaps kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Real Salt Lake W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Vancouver Whitecaps 1–0 Real Salt Lake
7Context
Real Salt Lake
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
Vancouver Whitecaps
Rest: 6 days · 3 matches in 14d
America First Field, Sandy · Referee: G. Gonzales
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
- Our model makes Vancouver Whitecaps the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 55%.
- How many goals are expected in Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 57%, and under 2.5 at 43%.
- Will both teams score in Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
- Real Salt Lake's reported absences and doubts include D. Zagar, J. Sanabria, L. Moisa, S. Lobjanidze and 9 others. Vancouver Whitecaps's include C. Sabaly, R. Priso, E. Ocampo, M. Gherasimencov and 11 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
- Real Salt Lake line up in a 4-4-2, Vancouver Whitecaps in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.