Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 26
Nashville SCvChicago Fire
Nashville SC
Chicago Fire·
3 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Nashville SC and Chicago Fire finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Nas / Chi | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Nashville SC down the side and Chicago Fire across. These 98.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 35% against 42%.
What we think
- Nashville SC56% · Match result
- Over 2.558% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Nashville SC the most likely of the three results, at 56% (we would not be surprised by anything from 44% to 67%). Most likely is not likely: at 56% this result does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 53%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 58%, against the market’s 64% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Nashville SC a 53% chance. Our model makes it 56%.
2Market
Open: 53% home · 23% draw · 24% away
Now: 53% home · 23% draw · 24% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Nashville SC
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- P. Yazbek — out (International duty)
- X. Valdez — out (International duty)
- C. Applewhite — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- R. Baker-Whiting — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- E. Tagseth — out (Leg Injury)
- S. Surridge — out (Back Injury)
- W. Madrigal — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- B. Schwake — out (International duty)
- A. Qasem — out (International duty)
Chicago Fire
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- R. Lod — out (International duty)
- A. Saletros — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- J. Bamba — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- S. Oregel — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- C. Mueller — out (Inactive)
- L. Barroso — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- H. Cuypers — out (Head Injury)
- V. Radojevic — doubtful (Lower-Body Injury)
- A. Franco — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Mekvabishvili — out (International duty)
- R. Lewandowski — out (International duty)
- P. Dithejane — out (International duty)
- C. Brady — out (International duty)
- N. Allen — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Nashville SCDLDWW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Inter Miami 2–2
- Wed 9 Sep · A v Toronto FC 1–2
- Fri 4 Sep · A v New York City FC 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v FC Cincinnati 4–0(xG 1.8–1.9)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Columbus Crew 3–2
Chicago FireLDDDD
- Sun 13 Sep · H v New England Revolution 1–2
- Thu 10 Sep · H v Inter Miami 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Toronto FC 4–4
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Seattle Sounders 2–2(xG 2.0–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v New York Red Bulls 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Nashville SC have won 2 of their last 5.
- Nashville SC have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Nashville SC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Nashville SC's last 5.
- Nashville SC kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Chicago Fire have won 0 of their last 5.
- Chicago Fire have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Chicago Fire's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Chicago Fire's last 5.
- Chicago Fire kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Nashville SC W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Chicago Fire 1–0 Nashville SC
7Context
Nashville SC
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Chicago Fire
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Geodis Park, Nashville · Referee: L. Hernandez
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire?
- Our model makes Nashville SC the most likely result at 56%. Most likely is not likely — at 56% it does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 53%.
- How many goals are expected in Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 58%, and under 2.5 at 42%.
- Will both teams score in Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire?
- Nashville SC's reported absences and doubts include P. Yazbek, X. Valdez, C. Applewhite, R. Baker-Whiting and 5 others. Chicago Fire's include R. Lod, A. Saletros, J. Bamba, S. Oregel and 10 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire?
- Nashville SC line up in a 4-2-3-1, Chicago Fire in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.