Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 26
Portland TimbersvAtlanta United FC
Portland Timbers
Atlanta United FC·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Portland Timbers and Atlanta United FC finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Por / Atl | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Portland Timbers down the side and Atlanta United FC across. These 98.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 35% against 45%.
What we think
- Portland Timbers53% · Match result
- Over 2.558% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 65% against a market price of 55% — 10 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 68% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.5 goals, and 2.8 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 25 players reported unavailable — 12 for Portland Timbers, 13 for Atlanta United FC.
Our forecast makes Portland Timbers the most likely of the three results, at 53% (we would not be surprised by anything from 43% to 64%). Most likely is not likely: at 53% this result does not happen 47% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 50%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 58%, against the market’s 67% — a 9 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Portland Timbers a 50% chance. Our model makes it 53%.
2Market
Open: 49% home · 23% draw · 28% away
Now: 50% home · 23% draw · 27% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Atlanta United FC
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Portland Timbers
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- Z. McGraw — out (Inactive)
- O. Fernandez — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- D. Da Costa — out (Concussion)
- V. Janssen — out (Red Card)
- D. Chara — out (Thigh Injury)
- A. Bonetig — out (Upper Back Injury)
- J. Mosquera — out (Foot Injury)
- J. Caicedo — out (Thigh Injury)
- C. Bassett — out (Injury)
- A. Aravena — out (Hip Injury)
- J. Waterman — out (Yellow Cards)
- F. Surman — out (Knee Injury)
Atlanta United FC
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- F. Picault — out (International duty)
- P. Diaz — out (International duty)
- M. Almiron — out (International duty)
- C. Sanchez — out (Injury)
- S. Alzate — out (Illness)
- E. Latte Lath — out (Transfer negotiations)
- T. Jacob — out (Yellow Cards)
- W. Reilly — out (Ankle Injury)
- A. Fortune — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Sergio Santos — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Galarza — out (Injury)
- A. Miranchuk — out (International duty)
- J. Alonso — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Portland TimbersLDWLD
- Sun 13 Sep · A v FC Dallas 1–2
- Thu 10 Sep · H v St. Louis City 2–2
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Minnesota United FC 5–4
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Austin 1–2(xG 2.0–1.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Los Angeles FC 1–1
Atlanta United FCDLDLW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v DC United 0–0
- Wed 9 Sep · H v Orlando City SC 2–3
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Inter Miami 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Charlotte 0–2(xG 0.9–1.6)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Sporting Kansas City 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Portland Timbers have won 1 of their last 5.
- Portland Timbers have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Portland Timbers's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Portland Timbers's last 5.
- Portland Timbers kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Atlanta United FC have won 1 of their last 5.
- Atlanta United FC have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Atlanta United FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Atlanta United FC's last 5.
- Atlanta United FC kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Portland Timbers
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
Atlanta United FC
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Providence Park, Portland · Referee: I. Elfath
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United FC?
- Our model makes Portland Timbers the most likely result at 53%. Most likely is not likely — at 53% it does not happen 47% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 50%.
- How many goals are expected in Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United FC?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 58%, and under 2.5 at 42%.
- Will both teams score in Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United FC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United FC?
- Portland Timbers's reported absences and doubts include Z. McGraw, O. Fernandez, D. Da Costa, V. Janssen and 8 others. Atlanta United FC's include F. Picault, P. Diaz, M. Almiron, C. Sanchez and 9 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United FC?
- Portland Timbers line up in a 4-3-3, Atlanta United FC in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.