Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 26
Colorado RapidsvSeattle Sounders
Colorado Rapids
Seattle Sounders·
3 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.4–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Colorado Rapids and Seattle Sounders finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Col / Sea | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Colorado Rapids down the side and Seattle Sounders across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 54% against 60%.
What we think
- Seattle Sounders38% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Seattle Sounders the most likely of the three results, at 38% (we would not be surprised by anything from 28% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 38% this result does not happen 62% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Colorado Rapids the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 25%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 60% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Colorado Rapids a 51% chance. Our model makes it 36%.
2Market
Open: 51% home · 24% draw · 25% away
Now: 51% home · 24% draw · 25% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Colorado Rapids
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- W. Frederick — out (International duty)
- Y. Maziz — out (Injury)
- R. Cannon — out (Yellow Cards)
- M. Navarro — out (Injury)
- J. Atencio — out (Yellow Cards)
- Z. Steffen — out (Shoulder Injury)
- J. Travis — out (Ankle Injury)
- A. Fadal — out (Abdominal strain)
- M. Diop — out (Knee Injury)
- G. Minoungou — out (International duty)
Seattle Sounders
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- P. Rothrock — out (Tendon Injury)
- P. de La Vega — out (Calf Injury)
- J. Ragen — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Roldan — out (Muscle Injury)
- P. Arriola — out (Calf Injury)
- Y. Gomez Andrade — out (Muscle Injury)
- H. Dotson — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Morris — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Roldan — out (Hip Injury)
- Kim Kee-Hee — out (Muscle Injury)
- S. Hawkins — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Colorado RapidsWDLWL
- Sun 13 Sep · H v CF Montreal 1–0
- Thu 10 Sep · A v Austin 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Columbus Crew 0–3
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Real Salt Lake 1–0(xG 1.6–0.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v San Diego 0–3
Seattle SoundersDDDDL
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Los Angeles Galaxy 1–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v New York Red Bulls 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Chicago Fire 2–2(xG 0.9–2.0)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v FC Cincinnati 1–1
- Thu 20 Aug · H v Austin 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Colorado Rapids have won 2 of their last 5.
- Colorado Rapids have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Colorado Rapids's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Colorado Rapids's last 5.
- Colorado Rapids kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Seattle Sounders have won 0 of their last 5.
- Seattle Sounders have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Seattle Sounders's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Seattle Sounders's last 5.
- Seattle Sounders kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Colorado Rapids W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Seattle Sounders 2–0 Colorado Rapids
7Context
Colorado Rapids
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Seattle Sounders
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: E. Arreguin
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Colorado Rapids vs Seattle Sounders?
- Our model makes Seattle Sounders the most likely result at 38%. Most likely is not likely — at 38% it does not happen 62% of the time. The market instead favours Colorado Rapids at 51%.
- How many goals are expected in Colorado Rapids vs Seattle Sounders?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Colorado Rapids vs Seattle Sounders?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Colorado Rapids vs Seattle Sounders?
- Colorado Rapids's reported absences and doubts include W. Frederick, Y. Maziz, R. Cannon, M. Navarro and 6 others. Seattle Sounders's include P. Rothrock, P. de La Vega, J. Ragen, C. Roldan and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Colorado Rapids vs Seattle Sounders?
- Colorado Rapids line up in a 4-3-3, Seattle Sounders in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.