Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 25
San DiegovPhiladelphia Union
San Diego
Philadelphia Union·
0 – 5 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). San Diego and Philadelphia Union finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| San / Phi | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, San Diego down the side and Philadelphia Union across. These 98.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 35% against 43%.
What we think
- San Diego49% · Match result
- Over 2.558% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes San Diego the most likely of the three results, at 49% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 60%). Most likely is not likely: at 49% this result does not happen 51% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Philadelphia Union the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 35%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 58%, against the market’s 65% — a 7 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Philadelphia Union a 41% chance. Our model makes it 27%.
2Market
Open: 35% home · 24% draw · 41% away
Now: 35% home · 24% draw · 41% away
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
San Diego
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- dos Santos CJ — out (International duty)
- S. Vines — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- A. Mighten — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- Gabriel Pirani — out (Injury)
- J. Tverskov — out (Red Card)
- A. Pellegrino — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- L. Bombino — out (Red Card)
- A. Reyes — out (Leg Injury)
- W. Kumado — out (Leg Injury)
- L. Morgan — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- P. Sisniega — out (Back Injury)
- W. Eisner — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- O. Valakari — out (International duty)
- E. Achouri — out (International duty)
Philadelphia Union
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- F. Westfield — out (International duty)
- D. Jean Jacques — out (International duty)
- A. Blake — out (International duty)
- E. Davis III — out (Injury)
- J. Sery Larsen — out (Shoulder Injury)
- O. Makhanya — out (Yellow Cards)
- E. Alladoh — out (Personal Reasons)
- C. Sullivan — out (International duty)
- N. Pierre — out (International duty)
- P. Ndinga — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
San DiegoLLWWL
- Thu 10 Sep · H v San Jose Earthquakes 2–3
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Orlando City SC 0–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Los Angeles Galaxy 3–1(xG 2.8–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Colorado Rapids 3–0
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Portland Timbers 1–3
Philadelphia UnionWWWDD
- Wed 9 Sep · H v FC Cincinnati 5–0
- Sat 5 Sep · H v CF Montreal 2–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v New York Red Bulls 3–1(xG 2.5–2.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Austin 1–1
- Wed 19 Aug · H v Inter Miami 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- San Diego have won 2 of their last 5.
- San Diego have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of San Diego's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of San Diego's last 5.
- San Diego kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Philadelphia Union have won 3 of their last 5.
- Philadelphia Union have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Philadelphia Union's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Philadelphia Union's last 5.
- Philadelphia Union kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
San Diego
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Philadelphia Union
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego · Referee: I. Elfath
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win San Diego vs Philadelphia Union?
- Our model makes San Diego the most likely result at 49%. Most likely is not likely — at 49% it does not happen 51% of the time. The market instead favours Philadelphia Union at 41%.
- How many goals are expected in San Diego vs Philadelphia Union?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 58%, and under 2.5 at 42%.
- Will both teams score in San Diego vs Philadelphia Union?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for San Diego vs Philadelphia Union?
- San Diego's reported absences and doubts include dos Santos CJ, S. Vines, A. Mighten, Gabriel Pirani and 10 others. Philadelphia Union's include F. Westfield, D. Jean Jacques, A. Blake, E. Davis III and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for San Diego vs Philadelphia Union?
- San Diego line up in a 4-3-3, Philadelphia Union in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.