Liga MX · Apertura - 8
Guadalajara ChivasvU.N.A.M. - Pumas
Guadalajara Chivas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas·
3 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Guadalajara Chivas and U.N.A.M. - Pumas finish on some other score 66% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Gua / U.N | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Guadalajara Chivas down the side and U.N.A.M. - Pumas across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 30% against 35%.
What we think
- Guadalajara Chivas54% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Guadalajara Chivas the most likely of the three results, at 54% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 71%). Most likely is not likely: at 54% this result does not happen 46% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 62%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, against the market’s 57% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Guadalajara Chivas a 62% chance. Our model makes it 54%.
2Market
Open: 64% home · 21% draw · 15% away
Now: 62% home · 21% draw · 16% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Guadalajara Chivas
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Guadalajara Chivas
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Confirmed · 5-4-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Guadalajara ChivasWDWWD
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Atletico San Luis 3–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v CF Pachuca 1–1(xG 1.4–1.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Club Tijuana 5–2
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Santos Laguna 1–0
- Sat 1 Aug · A v Puebla 1–1
U.N.A.M. - PumasWLDDW
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Leon 3–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Club Tijuana 0–2(xG 0.4–2.5)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Necaxa 1–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Club Queretaro 0–0
- Sat 1 Aug · A v FC Juarez 5–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Guadalajara Chivas have won 3 of their last 5.
- Guadalajara Chivas have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Guadalajara Chivas's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Guadalajara Chivas's last 5.
- Guadalajara Chivas kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas have won 2 of their last 5.
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of U.N.A.M. - Pumas's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of U.N.A.M. - Pumas's last 5.
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Guadalajara Chivas
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Rest: 3 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio Akron, Zapopan · Referee: Maximiliano Quintero Hernandez, Mexico
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Guadalajara Chivas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
- Our model makes Guadalajara Chivas the most likely result at 54%. Most likely is not likely — at 54% it does not happen 46% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 62%.
- How many goals are expected in Guadalajara Chivas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Guadalajara Chivas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Guadalajara Chivas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
- Guadalajara Chivas line up in a 3-4-2-1, U.N.A.M. - Pumas in a 5-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.