Serie A · Regular Season - 4
TorinovAS Roma
Torino
AS Roma·
0 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–11.0–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (9%). Torino and AS Roma finish on some other score 65% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Tor / AS | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Torino down the side and AS Roma across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 27% against 34%.
What we think
- AS Roma47% · Match result
- Under 2.551% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 73% against a market price of 66% — 7 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 69% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.1 goals, and 3.3 expected across the 4 we have expected goals for.
- Their last 10 meetings averaged 2.0 goals.
- 13 players reported unavailable — 8 for Torino, 5 for AS Roma.
Our forecast makes AS Roma the most likely of the three results, at 47% (we would not be surprised by anything from 41% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 47% this result does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 63%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 49%, against the market’s 55% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives AS Roma a 63% chance. Our model makes it 47%.
2Market
Open: 15% home · 23% draw · 62% away
Now: 15% home · 22% draw · 63% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards AS Roma
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Torino
Confirmed · 5-3-2
- C. Adams — out (Muscle Injury)
- C. Casadei — out (Rest)
- R. Belghali — out (Injury)
- C. Biraghi — out (Illness)
- P. Pellegri — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Israel — out (Shoulder Injury)
- E. Comert — out (Red Card)
- F. Anjorin — out (Hip Injury)
AS Roma
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- E. Ndicka — out (Illness)
- D. Rensch — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Balerdi — out (Calf Injury)
- L. Pellegrini — out (Thigh Injury)
- M. Bah — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
TorinoWLLDL
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Fiorentina 2–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Sassuolo 1–2(xG 1.1–1.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v AC Milan 1–2(xG 1.3–2.1)
- Sun 24 May · H v Juventus 2–2
- Sun 17 May · A v Cagliari 1–2
AS RomaWWWWW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Atalanta 2–1
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Lecce 4–0(xG 3.4–0.7)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Fiorentina 4–0(xG 3.1–0.3)
- Sun 24 May · A v Hellas Verona 2–0
- Sun 17 May · H v Lazio 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Torino have won 1 of their last 5.
- Torino have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Torino's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Torino's last 5.
- Torino kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- AS Roma have won 5 of their last 5.
- AS Roma have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of AS Roma's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of AS Roma's last 5.
- AS Roma kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Torino have won 1, AS Roma 7, with 2 drawn.
- Torino W–D–L
- 1–2–7
- Over 2.5
- 2 of 10
- Both scored
- 3 of 10
- Torino 0–2 AS Roma
- AS Roma 0–1 Torino
- Torino 0–2 AS Roma
- AS Roma 1–0 Torino
- AS Roma 3–2 Torino
- Torino 1–1 AS Roma
- Torino 0–1 AS Roma
- AS Roma 1–1 Torino
- Torino 0–3 AS Roma
- AS Roma 1–0 Torino
7Context
Torino
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
AS Roma
Rest: 9 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino · Referee: Fabio Maresca, Italy
8Red flags
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Torino vs AS Roma?
- Our model makes AS Roma the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 63%.
- How many goals are expected in Torino vs AS Roma?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 49%, and under 2.5 at 51%.
- Will both teams score in Torino vs AS Roma?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Torino vs AS Roma?
- Torino's reported absences and doubts include C. Adams, C. Casadei, R. Belghali, C. Biraghi and 4 others. AS Roma's include E. Ndicka, D. Rensch, L. Balerdi, L. Pellegrini and 1 other. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Torino vs AS Roma?
- Torino line up in a 5-3-2, AS Roma in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Torino and AS Roma?
- In their last 10 meetings, Torino have won 1, AS Roma 7, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.