Serie A · Regular Season - 4
IntervUdinese
Inter
Udinese·
5 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.4–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (12%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Inter and Udinese finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Int / Udi | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Inter down the side and Udinese across. These 96.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 3.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 36% against 47%.
What we think
- Inter72% · Match result
- Over 2.560% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 64% against a market price of 53% — 11 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 72% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.1 goals, and 3.4 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.2 goals.
- 15 players reported unavailable — 5 for Inter, 10 for Udinese.
- The price has moved 2.2% towards Inter since it opened.
Our forecast makes Inter the most likely of the three results, at 72% (we would not be surprised by anything from 66% to 78%). Most likely is not likely: at 72% this result does not happen 28% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 80%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, against the market’s 68% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Inter a 80% chance. Our model makes it 72%.
2Market
Open: 78% home · 15% draw · 7% away
Now: 80% home · 14% draw · 6% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Inter
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Inter
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- M. Spinacce — out (Inactive)
- D. Spence — out (Injury)
- J. Stones — out (Injury)
- H. Calhanoglu — out (Muscle Injury)
- H. Mkhitaryan — out (Suspended)
Udinese
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- O. Solet — out (Injury)
- J. Piotrowski — out (Heart Problems)
- J. Arizala — out (Thigh Injury)
- A. Zanoli — out (Knee Injury)
- G. Chakvetadze — out (Foot Injury)
- I. Gueye — doubtful (Injury)
- N. Zaniolo — out (Thigh Injury)
- M. Palma — out (Muscle Injury)
- C. Kabasele — out (Red Card)
- A. Buksa — out (Inactive)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
InterWWWDD
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Napoli 3–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Cagliari 1–0(xG 3.8–0.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Monza 4–1
- Sat 23 May · A v Bologna 3–3
- Sun 17 May · H v Hellas Verona 1–1
UdineseLWDLL
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Lazio 1–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Monza 3–2(xG 0.9–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Como 1–1
- Sun 24 May · A v Napoli 0–1
- Sun 17 May · H v Cremonese 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Inter have won 3 of their last 5.
- Inter have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Inter's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Inter's last 5.
- Inter kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Udinese have won 1 of their last 5.
- Udinese have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Udinese's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Udinese's last 5.
- Udinese kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Inter have won 8, Udinese 2, with 0 drawn.
- Inter W–D–L
- 8–0–2
- Over 2.5
- 8 of 10
- Both scored
- 7 of 10
- Udinese 0–1 Inter
- Inter 1–2 Udinese
- Inter 2–1 Udinese
- Udinese 2–3 Inter
- Udinese 1–2 Inter
- Inter 4–0 Udinese
- Inter 3–1 Udinese
- Udinese 3–1 Inter
- Udinese 1–2 Inter
- Inter 2–0 Udinese
7Context
Inter
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Udinese
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milano · Referee: Luca Pairetto, Italy
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Inter vs Udinese?
- Our model makes Inter the most likely result at 72%. Most likely is not likely — at 72% it does not happen 28% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 80%.
- How many goals are expected in Inter vs Udinese?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
- Will both teams score in Inter vs Udinese?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Inter vs Udinese?
- Inter's reported absences and doubts include M. Spinacce, D. Spence, J. Stones, H. Calhanoglu and 1 other. Udinese's include O. Solet, J. Piotrowski, J. Arizala, A. Zanoli and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Inter vs Udinese?
- Inter line up in a 3-5-2, Udinese in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Udinese?
- In their last 10 meetings, Inter have won 8, Udinese 2, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 7.